When to start burning points?

[Pucky Freak]

I look at points a bit like investing or saving for retirement...even if you don't know exactly how you plan to 'burn' them, you are probably better off giving yourself options in the future by having more points. Obviously this requires a budgetary consideration - and yes - you may end up buying points and not having any great options...but the way things are going I'd error on the side of having as many points as possible in as many states as possible.

Solidly disagree there. Retirement savings all convert to the same asset (cash), and the investment is always compounding, so the longer you save the more you have.

PP usually the optimal ROI is in the 1-4 PP range, after which point there is highly diminishing returns. Below, thick line is retirement investments and thin line is PP. Note that when the PP line finally ticks up again you might be in a nursing home.Some examples:
A. CO bear - many fine hunts at 0PP. PP doesn’t buy you much of anything.

B. CO elk/deer - Highly diminishing returns after after 2-4 points. You can hold out for a long time and get a slightly better hunt. If you started chasing a glory unit today you’d be paying more than if you bought a LO tag or a guided hunt.

C. UT deer - unless you’re planning on general deer it helps to have a clue about how long it will take to get a tag.

D. NV elk - Unless you’re in it for the LONG haul or are OK with rolling dice on low probability hunts, your PP might be buying you literally nothing.

E. WY antelope - 2PP gets you 100% harvest success on a mature buck. More PP just adds more to choose from, slightly bigger horns, or easier access.

F. MSG PP in most cases are buying you nothing…0 ROI unless you get lucky.

Another significant factor is that with retirement savings it’s unlikely that the the basic financials assumptions are going to dramatically change within your lifetime. Multiple stakeholders don’t want the US economy to collapse. With PP inflation is now about 20% year over year, and the states can change the rules for any reason at any time, with little consequence to their own bottom line.

CO they handed out PP like free heroin for over 2 decades and now that they have all the high point holders by the balls they started cashing in big time by charging a lot more to keep playing the game. Many states have already followed suit (NV, UT, ID in it’s own way), and the ones that haven’t likely will soon (WY), as in 2022.

 

[Cheesehead]

To steal a phrase:
The best time to burn points is yesterday
The second best time is today

 

[idahohuntr]

Solidly disagree there. Retirement savings all convert to the same asset (cash), and the investment is always compounding, so the longer you save the more you have.

PP usually the optimal ROI is in the 1-4 PP range, after which point there is highly diminishing returns. Below, thick line is retirement investments and thin line is PP. Note that when the PP line finally ticks up again you might be in a nursing home.View attachment 197000Some examples:
A. CO bear - many fine hunts at 0PP. PP doesn’t buy you much of anything.

B. CO elk/deer - Highly diminishing returns after after 2-4 points. You can hold out for a long time and get a slightly better hunt. If you started chasing a glory unit today you’d be paying more than if you bought a LO tag or a guided hunt.

C. UT deer - unless you’re planning on general deer it helps to have a clue about how long it will take to get a tag.

D. NV elk - Unless you’re in it for the LONG haul or are OK with rolling dice on low probability hunts, your PP might be buying you literally nothing.

E. WY antelope - 2PP gets you 100% harvest success on a mature buck. More PP just adds more to choose from, slightly bigger horns, or easier access.

F. MSG PP in most cases are buying you nothing…0 ROI unless you get lucky.

Another significant factor is that with retirement savings it’s unlikely that the the basic financials assumptions are going to dramatically change within your lifetime. Multiple stakeholders don’t want the US economy to collapse. With PP inflation is now about 20% year over year, and the states can change the rules for any reason at any time, with little consequence to their own bottom line.

CO they handed out PP like free heroin for over 2 decades and now that they have all the high point holders by the balls they started cashing in big time by charging a lot more to keep playing the game. Many states have already followed suit (NV, UT, ID in it’s own way), and the ones that haven’t likely will soon (WY), as in 2022.

Agree to disagree. Your graph implies fairly static conditions...which couldn't be further from reality in western big game hunting...you even articulate one of the major reasons (states changing rules/hunts/tag numbers etc.) in your post. But we also need to add in point creep...the unit you think should only take 2 PP suddenly becomes 4...then 7...if you kept building while you bounced around states, you stand a better chance of keeping pace. Had this happen on many CO deer units, WY pronghorn, and probably many others if i looked over my app spreadsheets.

I do agree that there are states/species that really aren't worth building points...M,S,G, NV, WA, OR...pretty much a waste in most cases. But then you have CO Deer/Elk, WY D/E/P, etc.

Bottom line...if folks are applying in more states than they can hunt in a year...don't stop buying points because you reach a certain level...keep buying until you burn em. You will want the extra cushion in your account...kind of like saving a little extra in the 401k

 

[kwyeewyk]

I am 27 years old and in very athletic shape.

Time to get hunting with all those points, you never know what tomorrow holds for health. Are you hunting OTC tags in the meantime? I couldn't imagine having all those points and not getting after it.

By the time you burn through some of these you can have the first ones you burn built up again. I'd be headed to Wyoming next year on a general elk tag and maybe a regional deer tag (the only one in that point range). During that time I'd build a plan for how to use the rest of them. You're in a great spot and it's definitely time to start burning.

 

[Pucky Freak]

Agree to disagree. Your graph implies fairly static conditions...which couldn't be further from reality in western big game hunting...you even articulate one of the major reasons (states changing rules/hunts/tag numbers etc.) in your post. But we also need to add in point creep...the unit you think should only take 2 PP suddenly becomes 4...then 7...if you kept building while you bounced around states, you stand a better chance of keeping pace. Had this happen on many CO deer units, WY pronghorn, and probably many others if i looked over my app spreadsheets.

I do agree that there are states/species that really aren't worth building points...M,S,G, NV, WA, OR...pretty much a waste in most cases. But then you have CO Deer/Elk, WY D/E/P, etc.

Bottom line...if folks are applying in more states than they can hunt in a year...don't stop buying points because you reach a certain level...keep buying until you burn em. You will want the extra cushion in your account...kind of like saving a little extra in the 401k

More like buying term insurance than a 401(k) contribution, but I catch your drift. I continue to buy a WY elk and deer PP every year until I use them b/c of creep.

 

[mevertsen]

I got to thinking about this some a bit more. Specifically about nevada.
You have to buy a license to maintain those points, not sure on the requirements for all the other states.

If you have the hunting license and are committed to continue to apply here, then apply for everything. Also, since you have the license, make a trip out to hunt birds and small game, try different areas, but make it more of a scouting trip for big game as well.

And don't anticipate a certain number of points being a guarantee of odds. There are people with max points who'd don't draw and there are people with minimum points who do draw.

Also, we have the fcfs system now, and many good tags have been turned in and reissued.

Keep I mind though. You cannot hunt and gain points for the same species. If you get a tag, your points go to zero.

 

[Durango Mike]

Solidly disagree there. Retirement savings all convert to the same asset (cash), and the investment is always compounding, so the longer you save the more you have.

PP usually the optimal ROI is in the 1-4 PP range, after which point there is highly diminishing returns. Below, thick line is retirement investments and thin line is PP. Note that when the PP line finally ticks up again you might be in a nursing home.View attachment 197000Some examples:
A. CO bear - many fine hunts at 0PP. PP doesn’t buy you much of anything.

B. CO elk/deer - Highly diminishing returns after after 2-4 points. You can hold out for a long time and get a slightly better hunt. If you started chasing a glory unit today you’d be paying more than if you bought a LO tag or a guided hunt.

C. UT deer - unless you’re planning on general deer it helps to have a clue about how long it will take to get a tag.

D. NV elk - Unless you’re in it for the LONG haul or are OK with rolling dice on low probability hunts, your PP might be buying you literally nothing.

E. WY antelope - 2PP gets you 100% harvest success on a mature buck. More PP just adds more to choose from, slightly bigger horns, or easier access.

F. MSG PP in most cases are buying you nothing…0 ROI unless you get lucky.

Another significant factor is that with retirement savings it’s unlikely that the the basic financials assumptions are going to dramatically change within your lifetime. Multiple stakeholders don’t want the US economy to collapse. With PP inflation is now about 20% year over year, and the states can change the rules for any reason at any time, with little consequence to their own bottom line.

CO they handed out PP like free heroin for over 2 decades and now that they have all the high point holders by the balls they started cashing in big time by charging a lot more to keep playing the game. Many states have already followed suit (NV, UT, ID in it’s own way), and the ones that haven’t likely will soon (WY), as in 2022.

Love the chart matrix, I think there is a big difference between resident and non resident accumulating points to determining when/where you want to hunt. For those planning an occasional western trip having enough points banked to have several season choices has value. For residents in CO as we move more to almost all GMU's being "draw" having a list of GMU's that you want to hunt and thresholds of necessary points certainly makes sense.

 

[midwesthunter]

You have to decide what your goals are for each one of those tags you are building points for. Some think using more points then it takes to draw a tag is wasting money, while tech true you are spending extra money then needed to draw that tag, I look at it a little different, if I have my heart set on a unit or area, but have time constraints, having more then enough points to draw that tag should almost guarantee you can hunt the year you want.

 

[Iowan]

Come up with a plan/budget and be realistic about it. I have my families points and hunts mapped out over the next ten years.

Do you think that you will ever draw an LE tag in Utah? If you answer yes, you are not being realistic or have not put pencil to paper.

Can you draw some good hunts in places like CO and WY - absolutely.

You have enough points to go on some good hunts out west each year - I would start now.

I started the big game tag thing about 15 years ago - the landscape has changed completely in this time.

I am lucky that my hunting here is incredible and going out west is just a great bonus when it happens.

I believe there are many people that are literally afraid to use their points - they like the idea of having them and have put so much pressure on themselves to 'succeed' after so many years. I think about the idea of being a max point holder for Wyoming antelope - hard to understand. It won't be long and there will scores of people with 30 elk points in places like CO and UT - that is insane (wish I had them but insane none-the-less).

 

[Blackcats06]

Solidly disagree there. Retirement savings all convert to the same asset (cash), and the investment is always compounding, so the longer you save the more you have.

PP usually the optimal ROI is in the 1-4 PP range, after which point there is highly diminishing returns. Below, thick line is retirement investments and thin line is PP. Note that when the PP line finally ticks up again you might be in a nursing home.View attachment 197000Some examples:
A. CO bear - many fine hunts at 0PP. PP doesn’t buy you much of anything.

B. CO elk/deer - Highly diminishing returns after after 2-4 points. You can hold out for a long time and get a slightly better hunt. If you started chasing a glory unit today you’d be paying more than if you bought a LO tag or a guided hunt.

C. UT deer - unless you’re planning on general deer it helps to have a clue about how long it will take to get a tag.

D. NV elk - Unless you’re in it for the LONG haul or are OK with rolling dice on low probability hunts, your PP might be buying you literally nothing.

E. WY antelope - 2PP gets you 100% harvest success on a mature buck. More PP just adds more to choose from, slightly bigger horns, or easier access.

F. MSG PP in most cases are buying you nothing…0 ROI unless you get lucky.

Another significant factor is that with retirement savings it’s unlikely that the the basic financials assumptions are going to dramatically change within your lifetime. Multiple stakeholders don’t want the US economy to collapse. With PP inflation is now about 20% year over year, and the states can change the rules for any reason at any time, with little consequence to their own bottom line.

CO they handed out PP like free heroin for over 2 decades and now that they have all the high point holders by the balls they started cashing in big time by charging a lot more to keep playing the game. Many states have already followed suit (NV, UT, ID in it’s own way), and the ones that haven’t likely will soon (WY), as in 2022.

Do you believe E is still a possibility after the point creep this year?

 

[Pucky Freak]

Do you believe E is still a possibility after the point creep this year?

Absolutely. Look at how many units were 100% draw success with >1PP in the regular draw, and <1 in the special. https://wgfd.wyo.gov/Hunting/Drawing-Odds/2021-Drawing-Odds Once you make a list of all those units, narrow it down to units with at least 10% accessible public land with suitable antelope habitat. You still have many units to choose from.

Lastly, it matters how you approach the hunt. Some people road-hunt for a day or two, complain about congestion, and then leave empty-handed.

There are many tactics which can increase your success, sometimes dramatically:
A. Hike and glass areas that are not visible from a road
B. E-scout, and know all your access roads
C. Archery permit
D. Scout prior to opening day of gun season and take your buck at sunrise.
E. Set aside at least 4-5 days to hunt
F. Be willing to hike. Some low-PP units have a 1-3 access points that open up to tens of thousands of acres of public land full of antelope.
G. Be a proficient marksman to at least 300 yards.

If you have strategy or tactics question about a specific unit feel free to PM me and I may be able to help.

 

[Blackcats06]

Absolutely. Look at how many units were 100% draw success with >1PP in the regular draw, and <1 in the special. https://wgfd.wyo.gov/Hunting/Drawing-Odds/2021-Drawing-Odds Once you make a list of all those units, narrow it down to units with at least 10% accessible public land with suitable antelope habitat. You still have many units to choose from.

Lastly, it matters how you approach the hunt. Some people road-hunt for a day or two, complain about congestion, and then leave empty-handed.

There are many tactics which can increase your success, sometimes dramatically:
A. Hike and glass areas that are not visible from a road
B. E-scout, and know all your access roads
C. Archery permit
D. Scout prior to opening day of gun season and take your buck at sunrise.
E. Set aside at least 4-5 days to hunt
F. Be willing to hike. Some low-PP units have a 1-3 access points that open up to tens of thousands of acres of public land full of antelope.
G. Be a proficient marksman to at least 300 yards.

If you have strategy or tactics question about a specific unit feel free to PM me and I may be able to help.

I don’t like D. I hate to have a hunt end that soon. And I’m assuming after the shooting starts most antelope will be on private which then makes it a really hard hunt. FYI. I have 6 points going into next year. The unit i had picked out with 5 points when from 2 to 6 points required in 2021.

 

[Bullshot]

My mindset is changing rapidly. I have a couple "glory tag" point totals for a couple species and even being at that threshold, the hunts keep outpacing me. The math tells me I am 12 years out... then 15 years out, then 17 years out.... I am in my mid 40's, started in my early 20's. GOOOOOOD LUCK if you are starting now.

New strategy.... will be trying for the best elk hunts I can get over the next 5-10 years, then I'm mostly out. After that, get a couple points and use them FAST. Cow tags in premium units included. Before too long (it will arrive sooner than I want to think about) I'll probably be too old to pack an elk by myself.

Deer and antelope, willing to wait a little longer in multiple states. First, I care less, second, those hunts will be potentially easier as I get older.

I do NOT trust ANY state anymore to preserve opportunity for nonresidents or to keep up their end of the deal for long term applicants. That is the reality. Believe me or don't. Things have not improved in the past 25 years, and won't in the next 25 years. Plan to hunt NOW.

 

[Pucky Freak]

And I’m assuming after the shooting starts most antelope will be on private which then makes it a really hard hunt.

Nope.

 

[Trial153]

My mindset is changing rapidly. I have a couple "glory tag" point totals for a couple species and even being at that threshold, the hunts keep outpacing me. The math tells me I am 12 years out... then 15 years out, then 17 years out.... I am in my mid 40's, started in my early 20's. GOOOOOOD LUCK if you are starting now.

New strategy.... will be trying for the best elk hunts I can get over the next 5-10 years, then I'm mostly out. After that, get a couple points and use them FAST. Cow tags in premium units included. Before too long (it will arrive sooner than I want to think about) I'll probably be too old to pack an elk by myself.

Deer and antelope, willing to wait a little longer in multiple states. First, I care less, second, those hunts will be potentially easier as I get older.

I do NOT trust ANY state anymore to preserve opportunity for nonresidents or to keep up their end of the deal for long term applicants. That is the reality. Believe me or don't. Things have not improved in the past 25 years, and won't in the next 25 years. Plan to hunt NOW.

Amen.

 

[Rhcuam]

I am in a similar point area, this thread made it clear I need to get to hunting!

 

[Sagebrush1]

Shit man, you could die tomorrow. Go hunting.

 

[thusby]

Yup, burn em, I’m gonna feel dumb shooting my 1500 antelope no matter the size.

 

[mr_steve]

I try break the hunts I’m saving points for into 3 categories:

1. 0-5 years to draw
2. 6-10 years to draw
3. 10+ years to draw

Also I want to have the same specie in every category (ie MT general deer, NV deer, AZ deer)

For category 1 my goal is to hunt as much as possible. I am looking at general tags. In order to have success on those tags you wait 20+ years for you have to improve your hunting skills. Nothing worse than guys sitting on the sideline as they wait for the premium elk tag and then eat tag soup once they draw because they’ve never hunted elk before. For me this is my current state Nebraska deer, WY Antelope, WY elk, MT deer and elk. Mainly because of proximity from where I’m from and growing up in ND.

For category 2 this is defined by your goals. I drew an AZ elk tag with less than 10 points but I also didn’t have screaming bulls in the rut. These are the tags that provide better opportunity than general but that you don’t want to hunt the best unit ever. NV deer, WY deer, CO deer, etc.

For category 3 these are called lottery tickets, wasting money but you don’t care because you have to pay to play. NV elk, AZ deer, and all moose goat sheep permits.

Once you mix these 3 categories together you get a nice blend of hunts every year. Good luck on your draws! Lastly do whatever is best for you.

 

[Blackcats06]

I try break the hunts I’m saving points for into 3 categories:

1. 0-5 years to draw
2. 6-10 years to draw
3. 10+ years to draw

Also I want to have the same specie in every category (ie MT general deer, NV deer, AZ deer)

For category 1 my goal is to hunt as much as possible. I am looking at general tags. In order to have success on those tags you wait 20+ years for you have to improve your hunting skills. Nothing worse than guys sitting on the sideline as they wait for the premium elk tag and then eat tag soup once they draw because they’ve never hunted elk before. For me this is my current state Nebraska deer, WY Antelope, WY elk, MT deer and elk. Mainly because of proximity from where I’m from and growing up in ND.

For category 2 this is defined by your goals. I drew an AZ elk tag with less than 10 points but I also didn’t have screaming bulls in the rut. These are the tags that provide better opportunity than general but that you don’t want to hunt the best unit ever. NV deer, WY deer, CO deer, etc.

For category 3 these are called lottery tickets, wasting money but you don’t care because you have to pay to play. NV elk, AZ deer, and all moose goat sheep permits.

Once you mix these 3 categories together you get a nice blend of hunts every year. Good luck on your draws! Lastly do whatever is best for you.

Az deer is only a lottery ticket for north of the big ditch and 3c. Lots and lots of good deer hunting that takes less than 6 points.