Ukraine / Russia

[Dave N]

Went on a NASCAR cruise to the Bahamas several years ago. One of the cruise directors running some activities was a former Miss Ukraine. She asked one night, "Has anyone ever wanted to go to Ukraine? Don't."

 

[Ben Lamb]

I've only been to Alabama once. Never been to Eastern Ukraine but think I'll pass on it.

You are ten times more likely to die in Alabama than in Ukraine.

So you've already cheated death. Live a little!

 

[MinnesotaHunter]

Hum> Since 2014 40,000 Ukrainians have been killed in the Donbass war. I guess then when the world started calling it a Russian invasion it then stopped being a civil war? and now the Donbass war is over.

Donbass War/Eastern Ukraine Rebellion (2014-Present)- Following the fall of the government, pro-Russian militias (primarily in Ukraine’s east), began activities designed to weaken the Kiev government’s grip on those areas inhabited more by Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Combat between these militias and government forces escalated into what can now be described as a rebellion against the authority of the central government. While Russia is clearly supporting the rebels, Moscow denies sending in their own troops to aid the rebels, though both Ukrainian government and some Western sources believe that Russian military forces are operating in eastern Ukraine.

I think you may be misunderstanding what began in Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimean Oblasts back in 2014. This was the opening phase of what is happening today. The conflict in the Donbass was fomented by the Russians to build a justification for the invasion that is ongoing.

To understand this at a very fundamental level you need to look back to the days of the USSR, when they would export ethnic Russians out into strategic areas of the USSR organically settled by other ethnic groups to seed support for the government in Moscow. It is the reason why there are these strategic pockets, and while their primary purpose is no longer valid, they offer leverage for Russian expansionism.

Russia uses elements of their Spetznaz; which is split between their military and foreign intelligence (GRU; sometimes called “little green men”), and organized crime elements to support and act as catalyst to fuel these low level conflicts. Once it escalates you start to hear the Kremlin making statements about needing to protect ethnic Russians....

 

[Ben Lamb]

All I know is, when @Big Fin gets elected President, we're all pushing for @MinnesotaHunter to be the next National Security Advisor.

 

[BigHornRam]

You are ten times more likely to die in Alabama than in Ukraine.

So you've already cheated death. Live a little!

I did live it up. It was for a college bowl game, and Wisconsin Badgers can make quite a spectacle of ourselves.

 

[BigHornRam]

I think you may be misunderstanding what began in Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimean Oblasts back in 2014. This was the opening phase of what is happening today. The conflict in the Donbass was fomented by the Russians to build a justification for the invasion that is ongoing.

To understand this at a very fundamental level you need to look back to the days of the USSR, when they would export ethnic Russians out into strategic areas of the USSR organically settled by other ethnic groups to seed support for the government in Moscow. It is the reason why there are these strategic pockets, and while their primary purpose is no longer valid, they offer leverage for Russian expansionism.

Russia uses elements of their Spetznaz; which is split between their military and foreign intelligence (GRU; sometimes called “little green men”), and organized crime elements to support and act as catalyst to fuel these low level conflicts. Once it escalates you start to hear the Kremlin making statements about needing to protect ethnic Russians....

I've heard this from a number of news sources. Civil War by design if you will.

 

[shoots-straight]

Here is some rambling incoherence.

Well, we'll see how well you write and talk when you're 108 years old. Your time is coming.

 

[BigHornRam]

Well, we'll see how well you write and talk when you're 108 years old. Your time is coming.

108 and all liquored up. Could be entertaining!

 

[Handlebar]

I wonder, and granted this is not fleshed out very well, but perhaps Putin has achieved what he wanted.

Further extended Russian control over eastern Ukraine. Guaranteeing a buffer on the Don River and providing a bulwark against Ukraine ever regaining control of the Crimea which insures Russian shipping out of the Black Sea. I wonder if the campaign against Kiev has been a ruse in order to gain this real estate.

Demonstrated to the Chinese that they could be an integral partner in supplanting the West, or at least would indicate that Russia believes that the West will be overcome by China, and they are hitching to that wagon.

The only country between Russia and China is Kazakhstan and they are not in a position to refuse either one. A northern Silk Road, with energy going east and finished goods going West without the uncertainty of ocean travel, interference from Western naval forces.

Begun or hastening the process of eliminating the petrodollar from dominance and replacing with the yuan.

And, just generally trying to give the West a black, some of this would perhaps in their view bring back the Russian prestige in the world.

Just thinking out loud.

 

[406dn]

The only country between Russia and China is Kazakhstan and they are not in a position to refuse either one. A northern Silk Road, with energy going east and finished goods going West without the uncertainty of ocean travel, interference from Western naval forces.

Just thinking out loud.

While I don't know how all of this shakes out, I am willing to wager that China is not eager to ship finished goods over land across Russia. That sounds like something a communist economist might dream up.

 

[BigHornRam]

Putin's going to be giving away his countries oil and gas for rubles on the dollar to China. Just showed all the world how impotent his military is. Economic future of his comrades is bleak at best. Not working out as scripted IMO.

 

[Handlebar]

While I don't know how all of this shakes out, I am willing to wager that China is not eager to ship finished goods over land across Russia. That sounds like something a communist economist might dream up.

Why not, what would be potential downsides to China, thanks

 

[Handlebar]

Putin's going to be giving away his countries oil and gas for rubles on the dollar to China. Just showed all the world how impotent his military is. Economic future of his comrades is bleak at best. Not working out as scripted IMO.

If and I know a big one, the US$ is challenged for reserve currency wouldn't the yuan be of higher value and weaken our country at the same time.

 

[F250]

I wonder where Bernie Sanders and his band of Socialists are hiding during this Russian invasion ?? Perhaps he thinks this may not be the time for his rhetoric regarding the pros of Socialism and how great he thought The Russian ideals were when he honeymooned over there.

 

[JT88]

I wonder where Bernie Sanders and his band of Socialists are hiding during this Russian invasion ?? Perhaps he thinks this may not be the time for his rhetoric regarding the pros of Socialism and how great he thought The Russian ideals were when he honeymooned over there.

He's probably still sitting in his chair

 

[406dn]

Why not, what would be potential downsides to China, thanks

Shipping by land is far more expensive than shipping by sea.

Add, Russia has robust winters...how will that enhance the flow of goods.

I severely doubt Russia has the infrastructure in place to take on the task of shipping China's goods.

 

[BigHornRam]

If and I know a big one, the US$ is challenged for reserve currency wouldn't the yuan be of higher value and weaken our country at the same time.

I believe that was China's ultimate goal in all this. Putin was played by China.

 

[Handlebar]

Shipping by land is far more expensive than shipping by sea.

Add, Russia has robust winters...how will that enhance the flow of goods.

I severely doubt Russia has the infrastructure in place to take on the task of shipping China's goods.

Wouldn't it be far cheaper to maintain rail lines through the deserts of Kazakhstan or is it a volume thing

 

[hank4elk]

China is second thinking the new trans siberian railroad they were thinking of, and their plans they had with vlad...

good luck trying this in the stans now vlad.

 

[BigHornRam]

While I don't know how all of this shakes out, I am willing to wager that China is not eager to ship finished goods over land across Russia. That sounds like something a communist economist might dream up.

Bribe at every check station to pass through.....