Gastro Gnome - Eat Better Wherever

The "CWD is a HOAX" movement is building

I’ve posted tons of links to research on the forum over the years on this subject that could get turned up with the search function, so I’m not going to dig it all up again. But yes, population declines in the 40-60% range have been observed in some herds with long-term infection. Mule deer, white-tails, and elk. So does it have the capacity to have population level effects? Yes.
Believe me or not but I’ve tried several times to search HT knowing that it’s had to have been discussed previously. I get this message that says Oops! we ran into some problems. A server error occurred, try again later. Like I mentioned, I too have been doing research on it.

I’m intrigued by what I’ve learned so far and as most research does, it’s produced additional questions along with the information learned. It’s interesting how different states have chosen to deal with this so far.

Some states like Illinois have upped harvest in an attempt to “flatten the curve” and others have just monitored the situation and are conducting tests.
Norway chose to eliminate entire localized populations. Not saying one is better than the other. The science hasn’t shown a preferred method yet.

I do wonder about different management scenarios. Like letting it run it’s course for example. It seems that Colorado has just been observing it and still been able to manage deer and elk numbers successfully. Could this indicate that it’ll self regulate????

Perhaps herd reductions are necessary and will prove to be helpful. I can’t help but wonder about unintended consequences that could happen if this was the adopted method. Not being suspicious of intentions or a hoax here, just thinking of scenarios.

What happens if we let it play out? Massive die off? Not much change? No change? If we reduce numbers preemptively? No slow down in spread? Effective reduction in cases?

One thing that I find interesting is in the cases where entire deer farms have been tested and shown to be free of CWD and were strictly monitored. Somehow it still was able to become present.

There’s a lot of concentrated effort on this right now and I’m hopeful it turns out data we can use to curb this.


Wisconsin has said that the biggest risk of spread comes from younger age class bucks and is encouraging harvest of them. Looks like Montana is ahead of the game by whackin all those young muleys. Proactive! LOL
 

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Absolutely not.

Edit: sorry, that was jaded and pissy. I should elaborate. The typical pattern has been that states have been testing for decades with zero detections. Then, they suddenly detect a case. Then a couple more. Then over another decade or more we can watch the geographic spread and rising prevalence. That is not how it would play out, over and over again, if CWD had always been there. We have watched it climb up to 50% prevalence in some cases just in the time we have been observing and testing. With growth like that, there is zero chance it would have gone undetected for so long, and still has not been detected in so many places.
I hope this link will open

 
Believe me or not but I’ve tried several times to search HT knowing that it’s had to have been discussed previously. I get this message that says Oops! we ran into some problems. A server error occurred, try again later. Like I mentioned, I too have been doing research on it.

I’m intrigued by what I’ve learned so far and as most research does, it’s produced additional questions along with the information learned. It’s interesting how different states have chosen to deal with this so far.

Some states like Illinois have upped harvest in an attempt to “flatten the curve” and others have just monitored the situation and are conducting tests.
Norway chose to eliminate entire localized populations. Not saying one is better than the other. The science hasn’t shown a preferred method yet.

I do wonder about different management scenarios. Like letting it run it’s course for example. It seems that Colorado has just been observing it and still been able to manage deer and elk numbers successfully. Could this indicate that it’ll self regulate????

Perhaps herd reductions are necessary and will prove to be helpful. I can’t help but wonder about unintended consequences that could happen if this was the adopted method. Not being suspicious of intentions or a hoax here, just thinking of scenarios.

What happens if we let it play out? Massive die off? Not much change? No change? If we reduce numbers preemptively? No slow down in spread? Effective reduction in cases?

One thing that I find interesting is in the cases where entire deer farms have been tested and shown to be free of CWD and were strictly monitored. Somehow it still was able to become present.

There’s a lot of concentrated effort on this right now and I’m hopeful it turns out data we can use to curb this.


Wisconsin has said that the biggest risk of spread comes from younger age class bucks and is encouraging harvest of them. Looks like Montana is ahead of the game by whackin all those young muleys. Proactive! LOL
The HT search function is about as worthless as it gets
 
"My opinions are fact until you prove me wrong. However, if that proof comes from sources that don't reinforce my opinion then they are biased."
Teach this to children.

Opinions are opinions not facts. Opinions should be fluid.
New facts = new opinion.
New opinion does not = new facts.
Finding facts is harder than it should be.
 
Believe me or not but I’ve tried several times to search HT knowing that it’s had to have been discussed previously. I get this message that says Oops! we ran into some problems. A server error occurred, try again later. Like I mentioned, I too have been doing research on it.

I’m intrigued by what I’ve learned so far and as most research does, it’s produced additional questions along with the information learned. It’s interesting how different states have chosen to deal with this so far.

Some states like Illinois have upped harvest in an attempt to “flatten the curve” and others have just monitored the situation and are conducting tests.
Norway chose to eliminate entire localized populations. Not saying one is better than the other. The science hasn’t shown a preferred method yet.

I do wonder about different management scenarios. Like letting it run it’s course for example. It seems that Colorado has just been observing it and still been able to manage deer and elk numbers successfully. Could this indicate that it’ll self regulate????

Perhaps herd reductions are necessary and will prove to be helpful. I can’t help but wonder about unintended consequences that could happen if this was the adopted method. Not being suspicious of intentions or a hoax here, just thinking of scenarios.

What happens if we let it play out? Massive die off? Not much change? No change? If we reduce numbers preemptively? No slow down in spread? Effective reduction in cases?

One thing that I find interesting is in the cases where entire deer farms have been tested and shown to be free of CWD and were strictly monitored. Somehow it still was able to become present.

There’s a lot of concentrated effort on this right now and I’m hopeful it turns out data we can use to curb this.


Wisconsin has said that the biggest risk of spread comes from younger age class bucks and is encouraging harvest of them. Looks like Montana is ahead of the game by whackin all those young muleys. Proactive! LOL
Well shit.

Frustrating. I’ve spent hours and hours and hours of work looking up and posting links to research and breaking it down here so folks would have access to it. That really sucks.

If you are satisfied with a Clif’s notes version…

Look up Wind Cave elk. They’ve been monitoring that population because it is semi-captive in the National Park and this does not get hunted (though some individuals that leave the park do get harvested). The prevalence in this herd is much higher than we’ve seen so far in free-ranging elk, and models suggest if things continue, this population will not persist. Why? Range restriction? A game-farm type scenario? We don’t know. What does that mean for other places we artificially concentrate elk, like feedgrounds? I’m guessing we’ll get a chance to find out in the next couple decades.

Look at some of the recent Wyoming mule deer studies. Significant population level declines in some herds. Why some herds and not others? We don’t know. I believe Saskatchewan is also seeing some significant mule deer declines now as well, based on notes I’ve seen from meetings between SK and ND and MT wildlife managers.

Same can be found published from a couple upper Midwest states and whitetails, though which two states had published data on this escapes me at the moment. (The Upper Midwest runs together for me. I apologize to all you MichSconsiWegians out there).

The reason there have been so many different strategies by wildlife agencies is because of public sentiment. The only state to go all in on local depopulation swiftly and hard after their first detection was New York. I haven’t checked back in a year or two now, but last I checked they were at 10 years (at least, but maybe more) post-management and had not detected a single additional case. That is impressive. They are the only ones to actually implement that strategy. Otherwise, every state has adopted a test and monitor or a scaled-back herd reduction strategy, and has watched the disease spread geographically and prevalences spike, some into that 40-60% rate. It’s when prevalences start getting into those 30+% that population level effects were being seen, IIRC. That was some of the newer research I read; trying to identify where this threshold is that population declines begin to become observable. Still in the works I think.

Other good research…CWD contributes to higher mortality rates from other causes. So CWD deer are more likely to die due to cars, predators, accidents, etc than non-infected deer. Which people always try to pull a “gotcha!!! They’re not dying from CWD. It’s not 100% fatal!!”. Well, it is. We know this from game farm and research facilities where we protect them until the inevitable end stage. But populations don’t live in captivity. Infected individuals still must be able to survive all the other causes of mortality that face wild cervids. And once they get CWD, they suck at it. If it impairs their motor and sensory function to the point they can’t avoid being killed by things a healthy deer might escape, they are still dead, and more of them are dying from these other causes, faster, than we would expect in a healthy population. And as prevalences get high, you have a higher and higher percentage of your population that is no longer able to survive the various dangers of being a wild cervid. So populations look like they will eventually decline under that scenario. Decline how far? Who can say.

I have never quite believed that CWD alone will kill populations to extinction. But I do believe that it will significantly impact population’s ability to recover from other stochastic events or other sources of population decline. Particularly in mule deer, which are already not doing well across large portions of their range. My gut tells me that CWD is going to severely hamper a population’s ability to bounce back after droughts, or hard winters, or EHD outbreaks, or just the general pressures that are causing declines already. I have no data to support this idea. I just have a feeling.

If anyone really is unhappy with the state of CWD knowledge and wants the states to do better, I encourage you to go look at TRCP’s website. They have been very staunch advocates for CWD funding. Congress cut funding for CWD back in 2012. Almost no progress has been made since. We need to change that.
 
I think one of the biggest blockades to additional funding is that the population centers in the east are not having their hunting affected like the rest of the country. Around the capitol beltway are some of the highest deer densities in the country. And that same scenario is very true from about Massachusetts south. Not that it is not present but that it doesn't affect population in the same way it does in the western 2/3 of the country.

Anyone else think it will take documented transmission to a human for us to take it serious?
 
Anyone else think it will take documented transmission to a human for us to take it serious?
I'd say a large portion of society wouldn't take it seriously if it became a global pandemic killing millions of people...much less a single documented case of animal to human transmission. Besides, If they didn't see that person die of CWD in front of them, then was it even real?
 
That’s pretty interesting. Considering that CWD has been present in Colorado since the 60’s I would have assumed that seeing infected deer would be more common. I’ve never personally seen it. It’s new to Idaho and interestingly it didn’t make its way here by creeping across border from neighboring states but appeared well “inland” from the border.

I’m trying to learn more about it and have read the info at cwd-info.org, listened to podcasts, read articles and still feel like I don’t fully understand it.
I’ve got questions about it that I’d like answers to.

I in NO WAY think it’s a hoax.

I think part of the issue the hoaxers have is that some of the “data” can seem to contradict itself.
One example is I’ve read that the prions are viable (for lack of better term) for 4 yrs and also read that the prions remain viable forever. I realize that the data is fluid as we learn more.

Some aspects of CWD are really interesting like that it’s not just present in North America. Norway has it in wild reindeer population.
I recently listened to a podcast where a biologist was talking about CWD and he mentioned that they’re not sure if CWD has existed all along or if it’s a newer thing.
Prior to say 2010, I had not personally seen a deer with the symptoms, although I knew since the early 90s that CO had some issues they were looking at and were publicizing to hunters for the first time in the big game brochure, units where CWD was detected. They were NE plains and NE front range GMUs. In subsequent years, positives moved to Central North, NW and some NW Central GMUs, and then on to others. Both deer I have seen that I suspect had CWD came from NW CO GMUs, same herd 10-12 years apart. That herd also has and continues to have very strong populations based on what my eyes have seen. Based on the amount of fawns I saw with does this year, and the amount of bucks I spotted, the herd is in good shape, even though CWD has been detected in that herd since the mid 90s. So there is an affect, I’ve seen it. But I can say I’ve seen no noticeable differences in numbers of animals in the units I hunt as well. I have zero advanced or even above average knowledge of the disease. I only know what I’ve seen.
 
That herd also has and continues to have very strong populations based on what my eyes have seen. Based on the amount of fawns I saw with does this year, and the amount of bucks I spotted, the herd is in good shape, even though CWD has been detected in that herd since the mid 90s. So there is an affect, I’ve seen it.
Yet, Mule Deer populations statewide in colorado are significantly below objectives. So does that mean your observations are indicative of statewide mule deer health or does it mean it is a anecdotal, local account, that does not represent the larger population decline that has been scientifically studied and recorded?

Edit: I'm not suggesting these population declines lay soley on CWD.

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Yet, Mule Deer populations statewide in colorado are significantly below objectives. So does that mean your observations are indicative of statewide mule deer health or does it mean it is a anecdotal, local account, that does not represent the larger population decline that has been scientifically studied and recorded?

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I’m speaking to my experiences only. I have no knowledge or studies, other than what is published.
 
I’m speaking to my experiences only. I have no knowledge or studies, other than what is published.
Absolutely. I'm just trying to highlight how the "what I see in front of me", can look quite different than the macro perspective of a larger general trend.

It's why management decisions are generally not based on what you or I, or any other random person sees over a short window of time during the fall. They are generally based on decades long population counts, focused studies by biologists, universities, etc., Telemetry data, weather phenomenon, known hunter harvest rates, etc.
 
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Well shit.

Frustrating. I’ve spent hours and hours and hours of work looking up and posting links to research and breaking it down here so folks would have access to it. That really sucks.

If you are satisfied with a Clif’s notes version…

Look up Wind Cave elk. They’ve been monitoring that population because it is semi-captive in the National Park and this does not get hunted (though some individuals that leave the park do get harvested). The prevalence in this herd is much higher than we’ve seen so far in free-ranging elk, and models suggest if things continue, this population will not persist. Why? Range restriction? A game-farm type scenario? We don’t know. What does that mean for other places we artificially concentrate elk, like feedgrounds? I’m guessing we’ll get a chance to find out in the next couple decades.

Look at some of the recent Wyoming mule deer studies. Significant population level declines in some herds. Why some herds and not others? We don’t know. I believe Saskatchewan is also seeing some significant mule deer declines now as well, based on notes I’ve seen from meetings between SK and ND and MT wildlife managers.

Same can be found published from a couple upper Midwest states and whitetails, though which two states had published data on this escapes me at the moment. (The Upper Midwest runs together for me. I apologize to all you MichSconsiWegians out there).

The reason there have been so many different strategies by wildlife agencies is because of public sentiment. The only state to go all in on local depopulation swiftly and hard after their first detection was New York. I haven’t checked back in a year or two now, but last I checked they were at 10 years (at least, but maybe more) post-management and had not detected a single additional case. That is impressive. They are the only ones to actually implement that strategy. Otherwise, every state has adopted a test and monitor or a scaled-back herd reduction strategy, and has watched the disease spread geographically and prevalences spike, some into that 40-60% rate. It’s when prevalences start getting into those 30+% that population level effects were being seen, IIRC. That was some of the newer research I read; trying to identify where this threshold is that population declines begin to become observable. Still in the works I think.

Other good research…CWD contributes to higher mortality rates from other causes. So CWD deer are more likely to die due to cars, predators, accidents, etc than non-infected deer. Which people always try to pull a “gotcha!!! They’re not dying from CWD. It’s not 100% fatal!!”. Well, it is. We know this from game farm and research facilities where we protect them until the inevitable end stage. But populations don’t live in captivity. Infected individuals still must be able to survive all the other causes of mortality that face wild cervids. And once they get CWD, they suck at it. If it impairs their motor and sensory function to the point they can’t avoid being killed by things a healthy deer might escape, they are still dead, and more of them are dying from these other causes, faster, than we would expect in a healthy population. And as prevalences get high, you have a higher and higher percentage of your population that is no longer able to survive the various dangers of being a wild cervid. So populations look like they will eventually decline under that scenario. Decline how far? Who can say.

I have never quite believed that CWD alone will kill populations to extinction. But I do believe that it will significantly impact population’s ability to recover from other stochastic events or other sources of population decline. Particularly in mule deer, which are already not doing well across large portions of their range. My gut tells me that CWD is going to severely hamper a population’s ability to bounce back after droughts, or hard winters, or EHD outbreaks, or just the general pressures that are causing declines already. I have no data to support this idea. I just have a feeling.

If anyone really is unhappy with the state of CWD knowledge and wants the states to do better, I encourage you to go look at TRCP’s website. They have been very staunch advocates for CWD funding. Congress cut funding for CWD back in 2012. Almost no progress has been made since. We need to change that.
Copy that.
I’ll definitely check these out.
Thank you!
 
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