Ithaca 37
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"It's not the economy, stupid"
"For all the talk of political fortunes rising and falling with the latest economic report, analysis shows you might predict the election just as well by tossing a coin............."
Year Candidates Economy predicts Notes
1948 Truman v. Dewey Truman (weakly) Four of seven variables favored Truman. The incumbent had good stock market numbers and strong growth leading up to the election. He defied the pollsters and won, despite mediocre growth and rising unemployment following the war.
1952 Stevenson v. Eisenhower Stevenson (weakly) The economy looked fairly good for the Democrats as the stock market and growth numbers were up. But Eisenhower, a war hero of the first rank, won easily.
1956 Eisenhower v. Stevenson Eisenhower (strongly) Ike, going for re-election, was favored by every economic variable except recent stock market returns. He won everywhere but the deep south.
1960 Nixon v. Kennedy Kennedy (strongly) A poor economy strongly favored Kennedy over the incumbent party's Nixon (five of seven factors). He needed the advantage as he won in a squeaker.
1964 Johnson v. Goldwater Johnson (strongly) Every economic factor was pointing to a Johnson win except one, unemployment, and even that was barely for Goldwater. No doubt he was also helped by sentiment following JFK's tragic assassination; He won 61% of the vote.
1968 Humphrey v. Nixon Nixon (weakly) The economy had soured a bit since the last election, favoring Nixon in four of seven variables. The Vietnam War and George Wallace's third-party challenge likely played a bigger role as Nixon won the popular vote by less than 1% over Humphrey.
1972 Nixon v. McGovern Nixon (weakly) Nixon was again favored just slightly by the economic predictors. But this time he won in a landslide.
1976 Ford v. Carter Ford (weakly) Four of seven variables favored Ford. But his pardon of Nixon helped lead to a narrow loss (2% of the popular vote) to Carter.
1980 Carter v. Reagan Carter (weakly) The variables we track favored Carter by a narrow margin. But we did not look at inflation, which skyrocketed on his watch, to say nothing of the Iran hostage crisis. Reagan asked, "Are you better off?" and won.
1984 Reagan v. Mondale Mondale (weakly) Growth was slow during Reagan's first term, and the economy favored Mondale. But the economy was looking better by the end, and Reagan won 59% of the vote.
1988 Bush v. Dukakis Bush (strongly) Good economic numbers delivered in Reagan's second term favored Bush over Dukakis, and he won handily.
1992 Bush v. Clinton Clinton (strongly) Slow growth and even a rising tax burden gave Clinton the nod over Bush. It was the economy in 1992.
1996 Clinton v. Dole Clinton (strongly) Economic factors again strongly favored Clinton, and this time they were the numbers on his watch. Clinton won re-election handily.
2000 Gore v. Bush Gore (weakly) The economy favored Gore, though just barely. He won the popular vote by a sliver and lost the office.
2004 Bush v. Kerry Kerry (strongly) This year, the economy favors Kerry, at least through the second quarter. But the numbers could shift and other issues, especially Iraq and terrorism, may loom larger.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/invest/forbes/P92882.asp?GT1=4529
"For all the talk of political fortunes rising and falling with the latest economic report, analysis shows you might predict the election just as well by tossing a coin............."
Year Candidates Economy predicts Notes
1948 Truman v. Dewey Truman (weakly) Four of seven variables favored Truman. The incumbent had good stock market numbers and strong growth leading up to the election. He defied the pollsters and won, despite mediocre growth and rising unemployment following the war.
1952 Stevenson v. Eisenhower Stevenson (weakly) The economy looked fairly good for the Democrats as the stock market and growth numbers were up. But Eisenhower, a war hero of the first rank, won easily.
1956 Eisenhower v. Stevenson Eisenhower (strongly) Ike, going for re-election, was favored by every economic variable except recent stock market returns. He won everywhere but the deep south.
1960 Nixon v. Kennedy Kennedy (strongly) A poor economy strongly favored Kennedy over the incumbent party's Nixon (five of seven factors). He needed the advantage as he won in a squeaker.
1964 Johnson v. Goldwater Johnson (strongly) Every economic factor was pointing to a Johnson win except one, unemployment, and even that was barely for Goldwater. No doubt he was also helped by sentiment following JFK's tragic assassination; He won 61% of the vote.
1968 Humphrey v. Nixon Nixon (weakly) The economy had soured a bit since the last election, favoring Nixon in four of seven variables. The Vietnam War and George Wallace's third-party challenge likely played a bigger role as Nixon won the popular vote by less than 1% over Humphrey.
1972 Nixon v. McGovern Nixon (weakly) Nixon was again favored just slightly by the economic predictors. But this time he won in a landslide.
1976 Ford v. Carter Ford (weakly) Four of seven variables favored Ford. But his pardon of Nixon helped lead to a narrow loss (2% of the popular vote) to Carter.
1980 Carter v. Reagan Carter (weakly) The variables we track favored Carter by a narrow margin. But we did not look at inflation, which skyrocketed on his watch, to say nothing of the Iran hostage crisis. Reagan asked, "Are you better off?" and won.
1984 Reagan v. Mondale Mondale (weakly) Growth was slow during Reagan's first term, and the economy favored Mondale. But the economy was looking better by the end, and Reagan won 59% of the vote.
1988 Bush v. Dukakis Bush (strongly) Good economic numbers delivered in Reagan's second term favored Bush over Dukakis, and he won handily.
1992 Bush v. Clinton Clinton (strongly) Slow growth and even a rising tax burden gave Clinton the nod over Bush. It was the economy in 1992.
1996 Clinton v. Dole Clinton (strongly) Economic factors again strongly favored Clinton, and this time they were the numbers on his watch. Clinton won re-election handily.
2000 Gore v. Bush Gore (weakly) The economy favored Gore, though just barely. He won the popular vote by a sliver and lost the office.
2004 Bush v. Kerry Kerry (strongly) This year, the economy favors Kerry, at least through the second quarter. But the numbers could shift and other issues, especially Iraq and terrorism, may loom larger.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/invest/forbes/P92882.asp?GT1=4529
