Nevada Elk Question

[LWC55]

I'm looking at broadening the western states I apply for. Been doing some research on NV. I know it has great trophy potential and a lot of people say it is a must apply state. I've also heard said that if you don't have any points in NV, you are too late to the game, you won't be able to draw for 20 yrs, etc..
I'm wanting some opinions on this. Do you think a person would have a decent chance at drawing a good tag in the next 5-10 years? I understand you can't win if you don't play. Trying to weigh my odds, the expense of having to purchase the license up front, and the time factor. Thanks for any thoughts on this.

 

[Carnage2011]

Nevada's system allows you the chance of drawing your first year, but it may take 20+ years. I'd say if you want to hunt big elk Nevada is a great option. The odds are definitely slim, but someone has to draw and it could be you. A guy from here in Montana drew one of the best rifle tags in Nevada last year with only two points and shot a big bull. It could get expensive if you have to put in for years and years, but for the trophy potential and fact that every year you have a chance to draw I feel it's probably worth it. If you are going to apply for Nevada you have to buy the $142 license every year. Since you are already doing that you may as well apply for any other species that interest you. Deer is like $16 to apply for. Desert Sheep is around the same. You may as well try and draw something since you are buying the license anyway. Just my 2 cents. Good luck!

 

[NoWiser]

I don't have much interest in hunting anything in Nevada besides elk. I was going to start applying this year but, after looking at the true odds via GoHunt Insider, I decided to pass. Sure, some people will get lucky and draw a tag quickly, but the odds are still the odds and chances are I'll have $3,000+ tied up in hunting licenses before I ever draw a tag. That's not worth it to me.

 

[Flatrock]

How old are you?

I definitely do not think you have a decent chance of drawing a tag in 5-10 years. More like a very slim chance. I'm 32 with 5 points and I honestly think I'll only get 1 Nevada elk tag in my life. I expect it to realistically take at least 15-20 points to pull a tag. Then if you are successful in the hunt, they have a 10 year waiting period before you can even apply again. That might mean I'll be 50 or 60 with 0 points.

To apply for deer, elk, antelope and sheep, it is going to cost you at least $200. It costs at least $160 just to apply for elk so you might as well spend another $40 and buy points for the other 3 too. Or at least deer and antelope.

One bright spot in NV for drawing tags is archery deer and antelope. A guy can pull a tag in some of those units every 3-5 years or so(although if you are successful in shooting an antelope, there is a 5 year wait period). Deer odds are a bit better than antelope for the most part. In my opinion, if you aren't going to apply for some of those archery tags, it is pretty tough to make a case to apply in NV. Yes, game quality is excellent but man, you're going to spend $200+ each year for points. And yes, there is always the story of "my friend drew a tag with 3 points and somebody has to draw" but those are very serious exceptions.

Sorry to not paint a positive picture but that's just my opinion! If money isn't an object, by all means apply but for almost all of us, money is always a big factor. Or if you're willing to apply for the units with the best odds like a late rifle, you might pull a tag in 10-15 years which would still be a solid tag.

 

[thomas.orsack]

Well, I would say just apply for everything. Like someone else said, you could get lucky. I posted this picture a couple of months back of a Nevada bull...not even close to the biggest I saw.:hump:

 

[LWC55]

I just turned 40. I really appreciate all the honest feedback. Went on my last elk hunt in 2009 but planning on doing at least one western hunt every year for the foreseeable future. Been trying to get a few friends to commit for the last few years but seems something always comes up. My brother and I decided we are getting too old to wait for others to be ready. We are going hunting somewhere and if others want to come they are welcome, but we aren't waiting. I'm kicking myself for not getting in the point game sooner. But better late than never. I have 4 WY elk points, 1 WY antelope point, and will have a CO elk and Mule deer point after the draw. Put in for NM elk but planning on going CO OTC as we likely won't draw NM.

 

[treedagain]

I drew my bull tag with i think 7 points. Put in and see what happens

 

[LopeHunter]

I don't have much interest in hunting anything in Nevada besides elk. I was going to start applying this year but, after looking at the true odds via GoHunt Insider, I decided to pass. Sure, some people will get lucky and draw a tag quickly, but the odds are still the odds and chances are I'll have $3,000+ tied up in hunting licenses before I ever draw a tag. That's not worth it to me.

Sound plan if only care about elk. If have some interest in other critters, though, the price per tag gets cut in half or by four and you get to see some nice looking country before and after the year you would pull an elk tag.

I tend to apply for everything on 4 hooves if I am applying for anything in a state. I am after a ram bighorn and have been for 25 years of applying in multiple states. As I wait for a ram tag that may never happen, I have drawn some fun hunts.

A fun hunt for me means low tag numbers, will see mature animals every day, high success on mature animals and ample public land access and see some wonderful country. My last ten years have provided: bighorn ewe sheep, 2 mountain goats, aoudad sheep, oryx, 3 mule deer, Columbian whitetail, Eastern whitetail, 3 Coues whitetail, 5 pronghorn and 2 elk. One of the mule deer hunts was on a landowner tag and the rest were drawn.

My time in the woods and up on the mountain are the most reliable weeks of the year for me to shake off the worries of the world and measure myself against nature. I will be sad the first year I am not able to do much more that hobble out to the edge of a field to turkey hunt but will have no regrets. Hunt often. Hunt hard.

 

[jrabq]

Just be sure you go in knowing the facts. If you are just starting out it is possible, even likely that you will NEVER draw a NV bull elk tag in your lifetime. Sure, you will always have a chance, but it starts out being incredibly small (<<1%) and will never be a slam dunk.

There is a lot of talk how great the NV draw system is, but those comments are usually made by someone who drew a tag, no surprise. The bottom line is for NV elk the demand way outstrips the supply (currently by ~30 X), and no point system can really "fix" this problem.

I haven't looked at the 2015 data, but in 2014 there were 212 non-res bull tags for 6249 applicants; for an "average" draw odds of 3.4%. If you are just starting out your odds will be 10-100 X worse. Eventually you might catch up to the "average", but even that is not guaranteed. Yes, your points are squared, but you have a lot of people ahead of you; and due to the low draw/attrition rate that will probably always be the case (until you literally start outliving them).

As a point of reference, I have 12 points, and according to goHunt my odds for most hunts (and all "desirable hunts") are still < 5%, with only a few above 10%, none above 50%. And as time goes on my draw odds might actually get worse, not better, due to the distribution of point holders (even if no one new enters the draw).

One thing that might work slightly to your advantage is the NV elk herd is growing and the #tags has increased considerably in recent years. How high could they go in the future? Could you see another 2X increase? But will NV start trading "trophy" for "opportunity"?

There are a couple of other reasons to start in NV;
1) if you really-really want a desert sheep it might be worth the gamble, but odds are you will never draw
2) if you like to hunt mule deer you can probably draw a few tags (but not in the top units)

So if you have the $ and think it's worth the gamble for a trophy elk tag, then go for it.

Good luck,
JR

 

[Gr8bawana]

The odds for non-rsident bull elk tags are very long. Even for resident hunters the odds are quite steep. My son drew his bull tag last year with 9 bonus points. Take a look at this graph from NDOW.
http://www.ndow.org/uploadedFiles/ndoworg/Content/Hunt/Resources/2015_NR_Elk.pdf

 

[LWC55]

I've been known to gamble more money for less payoff...than a chance at a giant bull. In my youth of course. Still on the fence and would enjoy hearing any more thoughts on the subject.

 

[Big Fin]

The odds for non-rsident bull elk tags are very long. Even for resident hunters the odds are quite steep. My son drew his bull tag last year with 9 bonus points. Take a look at this graph from NDOW.
http://www.ndow.org/uploadedFiles/ndoworg/Content/Hunt/Resources/2015_NR_Elk.pdf

Unfortunately, the odds are way worse than what those reports show, way worse.

 

[T Bone]

The true odds are a bit depressing, even with 13 points....

I'll keep applying, and plan on hunting elk in CO and possibly ID.

 

[dainer]

Like Randy said, the bonus point link posted above doesn't show true draw odds, or factor in all 5 unit choices. I do see a ton of sleeper units on there, that you wont read or hear about in any of the magazines. Non res "odds" look better than res in most of them. Nevada elk herds are expanding, tag quotas are increasing, people are drawing and sitting out for 10 years.

 

[Elkmagnet]

Okay guys anyone care to show their work if you have a minute?

The way I see Nevada is it may be long odds if you really have your heart set on one particular trophy unit but if you have a good strategy of picking your five choices your accumulative odds seem OK when compared to other states non-resident elk odds.

My understanding is that in a points squared system it's not only about how many points you have but about how many years it's going to take to work through the people ahead of you.

There's always going to be moving\ jump but set that aside for a min and entertain me.
example; if you are putting in for a tag with 100 people ahead of who have an average of 10 points and you have none your single app is in with 10,000 others giving you very low odds but if they give 10 tags every year. It will take 10 years for the tide to start changing but once it starts, it shall change swiftly. From a fraction of a percent to 10% too 20% in about 5 years.
Bleek but on par with most. No?

I see the one Savior of this system to be the long post harvest waiting period. Otherwise we would all be squared out the ears already.

I'm no math whiz so what am I missing?

 

[LopeHunter]

Okay guys anyone care to show their work if you have a minute?

The way I see Nevada is it may be long odds if you really have your heart set on one particular trophy unit but if you have a good strategy of picking your five choices your accumulative odds seem OK when compared to other states non-resident elk odds.

My understanding is that in a points squared system it's not only about how many points you have but about how many years it's going to take to work through the people ahead of you.

There's always going to be moving\ jump but set that aside for a min and entertain me.
example; if you are putting in for a tag with 100 people ahead of who have an average of 10 points and you have none your single app is in with 10,000 others giving you very low odds but if they give 10 tags every year. It will take 10 years for the tide to start changing but once it starts, it shall change swiftly. From a fraction of a percent to 10% too 20% in about 5 years.
Bleek but on par with most. No?

I see the one Savior of this system to be the long post harvest waiting period. Otherwise we would all be squared out the ears already.

I'm no math whiz so what am I missing?

Here is the challenge. Only 3.4% NR applicants drew in 2014. In 10 years, only 3.4 x 10 = 34% for those ahead of you will have drawn. 70% are still applying. The guys wo drew in your Year 1 of applying can apply again now 10 years have passed so they get back in the game.

Meanwhile, you have 10 points so 100 chances. Hooray! A decade of persistence is paying off for you. Or is it?

The 70% of the original group that remains and was applying for one or more years before you began applying for elk in Nevada have 11 or more points. A guy just one year ahead of you had 2 ping pong balls vs your 1 in your Year 1. Looks looks at the two of you: 2nd year for you is 2 ping balls vs his 5, 3rd year is 5 vs 10, 4th is 10 vs 17, 10th 82 vs 101. So, with just his one competitor in the draw process, you went from 1 less ball to 19 fewer. You are losing ground and the guy with 10 points in your first year had 101 vs your 1 but now after 10 years with a 70% chance he is still applying you have 82 vs his 362 balls. You had 100 less ping pong balls but now 280 less balls.

The rate those ahead of you draw out is such you need to be in the game about 25 years to see your ping pongs balls GROW as a percentage of all balls in the hopper.

 

[Big Fin]

Here is the challenge. Only 3.4% NR applicants drew in 2014. In 10 years, only 3.4 x 10 = 34% for those ahead of you will have drawn. 70% are still applying. The guys wo drew in your Year 1 of applying can apply again now 10 years have passed so they get back in the game.

Meanwhile, you have 10 points so 100 chances. Hooray! A decade of persistence is paying off for you. Or is it?

The 70% of the original group that remains and was applying for one or more years before you began applying for elk in Nevada have 11 or more points. A guy just one year ahead of you had 2 ping pong balls vs your 1 in your Year 1. Looks looks at the two of you: 2nd year for you is 2 ping balls vs his 5, 3rd year is 5 vs 10, 4th is 10 vs 17, 10th 82 vs 101. So, with just his one competitor in the draw process, you went from 1 less ball to 19 fewer. You are losing ground and the guy with 10 points in your first year had 101 vs your 1 but now after 10 years with a 70% chance he is still applying you have 82 vs his 362 balls. You had 100 less ping pong balls but now 280 less balls.

The rate those ahead of you draw out is such you need to be in the game about 25 years to see your ping pongs balls GROW as a percentage of all balls in the hopper.

^^^ That.

Which is perfect evidence of why I wish we did not have point schemes. Such schemes are designed by old gray-haired farts like me, and the end product is crafted to benefit the old gray-haired crowd and the state agencies that have a license for legalized gambling in the form of selling points.

 

[NoWiser]

All I know is that GoHunt Insider saved me a lot of money this year when they published Nevada's draw odds!

 

[Gr8bawana]

Like Randy said, the bonus point link posted above doesn't show true draw odds, or factor in all 5 unit choices. I do see a ton of sleeper units on there, that you wont read or hear about in any of the magazines. Non res "odds" look better than res in most of them. Nevada elk herds are expanding, tag quotas are increasing, people are drawing and sitting out for 10 years.

As far as bull elk odds, the fact that you have 5 unit choices is irrelevant. The only time any choice after your 1st would matter is if there were any tags left in that area.
The reality is that every area has been listed as someones 1st choice because there really aren't any bad elk areas.

 

[Big Fin]

As far as bull elk odds, the fact that you have 5 unit choices is irrelevant. The only time any choice after your 1st would matter is if there were any tags left in that area.
The reality is that every area has been listed as someones 1st choice because there really aren't any bad elk areas.

Maybe I am reading your comment incorrectly, but all five of your choices are relevant, as the system looks at all five choices before going on to the next applicant. So, making your first 4 choices be high-demand hunts is a good strategy, with a lower-demand hunt as your 5th choice if you just want to go hunting.