Mule Deer Population trends

[Irrelevant]

Our fearless leader (@Big Fin ) made a comment in another thread that spurred my interest.

"It takes our eye of the fact that we have let mule deer numbers crash across most of the west and rather than launch a full on effort to change management and improve habitat, we collectively accept that we should just fight over the ever-shrinking mule deer herds..."

I too feel like they're tanking.

But that's not what Mr. Heffelfinger and the Mule Deer Working Group keep saying. https://wafwa.org/wp-content/upload...atus-of-Black-tailed-and-Mule-Deer_Linked.pdf

Per that status report (2021), mule deer populations are increasing in 6 States, stable in 10 States, and declining in 7 States ("States" includes CA provinces). At quick glance OR and WY appear to be the only states seeing substantial declines in mule deer populations (maybe NM as well).




While states like MT and ID seem to be fairing ok.



I'm not entirely sure what the point of this post is, other than I generally agree with BF and can't seem to reconcile my observations with the data.

 

[MarvB]

Can’t vouch for other states other than what I’ve collectively “read” here and other articles but I CAN objectively say that our Oregon numbers have indeed been tanking for some time. I drew a backyard (Ochoco) tag this year and look forward to getting out just to get out but I seriously doubt I will be pulling the trigger.

 

[rogerthat]

The montana data doesn't match my anecdotal experience in eastern Montana. Does the Montana data go back into the 90's? I would be interested to see population in the 90's. I know on my parents ranch, current population is a glimmer of what it was in the 90's and early 2000s.

 

[DFS]

Also curious if the Montana data is straight from fwp? They sure come up with some funky counts. I would have to agree with Rogerthat eastern Montana is a shell of its former self.

 

[Irrelevant]

Note that MT is x1.5 bigger than WY, but has equal mule deer populations (and HAD a population x1.5 smaller than WY a decade ago).

For those interested in the data sources, they're all presented in that report. There's also TONS of other data, reports, fact sheets on that page.

 

[RyGuy]

Can’t speak to other states, but Colorado saw a huge decline in mule deer (in 07-08?). And while the populations may be stable or increasing we are nowhere close to the numbers pre-crash. Sometimes the data can be deceiving when you look at the last 5 years and see the numbers steadily going up

 

[antlerradar]

The montana data doesn't match my anecdotal experience in eastern Montana. Does the Montana data go back into the 90's? I would be interested to see population in the 90's. I know on my parents ranch, current population is a glimmer of what it was in the 90's and early 2000s.

My observation in my little part of MT is that populations have crashed on public after the 96 winter and made a slow recovery until a big crash around 2012 and have had a hard time making any recovery since. Private populations have also crashed from time to time, but the recovery seams to be much quicker.

 

[ignorethefringes]

Note that MT is x1.5 bigger than WY, but has equal mule deer populations (and HAD a population x1.5 smaller than WY a decade ago).

For those interested in the data sources, they're all presented in that report. There's also TONS of other data, reports, fact sheets on that page.

It would be interesting to see this reconciled with "accessible" deer, i.e. not holed upon private lands.

 

[rogerthat]

It would be interesting to see this reconciled with "accessible" deer, i.e. not holed upon private lands.

The point of my post was that even on private land this data doesn’t reflect the population decline i anecdotally suspect has happened

 

[theat]

Hard to believe the population estimates that MT FWP comes up with for mule deer in Montana. All of the spots that I hunt in western Montana are a shell of what they were just 10-15 years ago. In places I used to see 50-100 deer over a weekend, Im lucky to even see a single deer these days. Lots of my eastern Montana spots are not quite as big of a decrease, but still a very noticeable decrease in numbers.

 

[Big Fin]

Thanks for bringing this up. I might be completely out to lunch, and if I am, I hope to be corrected. As a side note, Jim Heffelfinger is a great guy and his AFWA Blacktail Working Group is doing great things. He will be on my podcast next week.

This might age me and make me seem like Grandpa, but my comments are related to when I first took an interest in mule deer in 1984, so 38 years ago. To me, that is the trend line I can relate to and is "my picture of the mule deer world," however narrow that might be.

I am trying to locate the charts that show trends since the mid-80s. The decreases are substantial in every western state. Some of the current reports I read compare counts from the prior year, or they assess them against current mule deer objectives, with objectives dropping every time a western agency updates their mule deer plans.

Here is some of what I have read (and some of what I can find in my quick searches) that I used for my impression of long-term losses in mule deer numbers across the west.

When I was going to college in Nevada in the mid 80s the estimate was 250,000. Last year the count was estimated to be 93,000. I'll try to find those charts that support that.

Colorado, what I would call the heart of our mule deer populations, has seen significant drops. This is a chart of a 15 year period, but if you extended it back to the 80s, I think the starting numbers would be even higher.

I might be wrong, but from many studies I've read in Idaho and Utah, two other key mule deer states, the trends are similar to Colorado. I will try to find more charts that show a couple decades that support my notion that these are trends.

 

[Irrelevant]

Thanks for bringing this up. I might be completely out to lunch, and if I am, I hope to be corrected. As a side note, Jim Heffelfinger is a great guy and his AFWA Blacktail Working Group is doing great things. He will be on my podcast next week.

This might age me and make me seem like Grandpa, but my comments are related to when I first took an interest in mule deer in 1984, so 38 years ago. To me, that is the trend line I can relate to and is "my picture of the mule deer world," however narrow that might be.

I am trying to locate the charts that show trends since the mid-80s. The decreases are substantial in every western state. Some of the current reports I read compare counts from the prior year, or they assess them against current mule deer objectives, with objectives dropping every time a western agency updates their mule deer plans.

Here is some of what I have read (and some of what I can find in my quick searches) that I used for my impression of long-term losses in mule deer numbers across the west.

When I was going to college in Nevada in the mid 80s the estimate was 250,000. Last year the count was estimated to be 93,000. I'll try to find those charts that support that.

Colorado, what I would call the heart of our mule deer populations, has seen significant drops. This is a chart of a 15 year period, but if you extended it back to the 80s, I think the starting numbers would be even higher.

View attachment 227412I might be wrong, but from many studies I've read in Idaho and Utah, two other key mule deer states, the trends are similar to Colorado. I will try to find more charts that show a couple decades that support my notion that these are trends.

I don't disagree, nor does that status report


I do believe Jim has been quoted as saying some of the historically high populations we've seen were simply not sustainable levels. Now if my memory serves me right, and it almost never does, he was specifically referring to the 1950s as artificially high populations.

Based on that status report, mule deer seem to be increasing at the two extremes of their range, both the Texas panhandle and Alberta/Sask are seeing increases.

 

[rtraverdavis]

I’d be really curious to see what all of the variables look like between each of the states. I’m sure it has been or is currently being studies, but between increase in human population, habitat encroachment, habitat health, severity of winters, disease, drought, increase in predator and elk populations, and game agency management, what is causing some mule deer herds to do better than others? And how do we stop the bleeding? I’d be willing to bet that solutions are very herd-specific.


I don’t have the long-view that some do, but man, the winter of 16/17 really hit some of our deer herds hard here in Oregon. The difference between those two years (and every year after that winter) has been stark in the mule deer area I hunt. Makes me wonder what is causing the herd to have not rebounded by now.

 

[Irrelevant]

I’d be really curious to see what all of the variables look like between each of the states. I’m sure it has been or is currently being studies, but between increase in human population, habitat encroachment, habitat health, severity of winters, disease, drought, increase in predator and elk populations, and game agency management, what is causing some mule deer herds to do better than others? And how do we stop the bleeding? I’d be willing to bet that solutions are very herd-specific.


I don’t have the long-view that some do, but man, the winter of 16/17 really hit some of our deer herds hard here in Oregon. The difference between those two years (and every year after that winter) has been stark in the mule deer area I hunt. Makes me wonder what is causing the herd to have not rebounded by now.

For starters I vote we stop killing does. IDK why we find that acceptable. If the consensus among hunters is that there are fewer mule deer then we need to stop killing the breeding females. That decision needs to be made at the State level by wildlife managers, we can't rely on joe schmo to stop killing does when it's legal to do so.

 

[rtraverdavis]

For starters I vote we stop killing does. IDK why we find that acceptable. If the consensus among hunters is that there are fewer mule deer then we need to stop killing the breeding females. That decision needs to be made at the State level by wildlife managers, we can't rely on joe schmo to stop killing does when it's legal to do so.

100%

 

[S-3 Ranch]

Yep , they’re gone to hell in a hand basket, droughts, population growth, inept F&G management / elk over mulie preferred

here in Texas it’s compition with aoudad west of the pecoes river

 

[DFS]

I don't disagree, nor does that status report
View attachment 227424

I do believe Jim has been quoted as saying some of the historically high populations we've seen were simply not sustainable levels. Now if my memory serves me right, and it almost never does, he was specifically referring to the 1950s as artificially high populations.

Based on that status report, mule deer seem to be increasing at the two extremes of their range, both the Texas panhandle and Alberta/Sask are seeing increases.

Haven’t sask/Alberta had cwd there for 20-30 years?

 

[Huntin' Fool]

Mule deer numbers in Idaho were doing well through 2016. In much of eastern Oregon and Idaho, January-March 2017, winter kill was high. Drought since has likely contributed to the slow recovery. In Idaho, elk are up in most of the mule deer country too. The hard winter didn't hurt them much.

 

[mtnrunner260]

Don't know the population trend in Utah
(And some consideration should be given to new techniques, technologies, models,#s of biologist, biologist time in field, etc)
But in the early 80s the state issued nearly a quarter million deer tags and now it is in the neighborhood of 70K.

 

[brockel]

I trust Montana’s data as much as I trust their ability to execute a flawless draw