grandejuan
Active member
I'd apply in AZ and NV for sheep. I personally know one hunter who was drawn for Rocky Mtn Bighorn in AZ with 6pts in 2014, shot a 180+ ram too. The same happens in NV too. GJ
Is too late to start from 0 for goats, sheep and moose in any western state?
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Bambistew
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I would go as soon as possible, and not expect to be able to go when you are 65-70. That's a lifetime away, and your body/knees, or health could be gone by then. Who knows what can happen. In the last 10-15 years I have certainly seen my abilities decline, mostly my knees and back, and there is nothing I can do about it.
If you really want to go, save up and don't dick around applying for every tag you can to the tune of $2500 or more a year of non-refundable licenses/points etc. Save $4-500/month (twice what you'd "throw away")... and go in the next 4-5 years on a dall sheep hunt, or save a bit more and go on a bighorn hunt in Canada. Sheep hunts are going up in price about 5-10% or more a year. In 4-5 years you'll be lucky to find a cut rate dall sheep hunt for $20k, that's about the average rate now. There is no guarantee that you will ever draw a tag, much less that there will be any sheep left alive to hunt. As a NR, you could apply for every state offering sheep tags, and only have a chance at 1 of about 200 a year total, regardless of points scheme. Half of those will come from WY and NV.
As the sheep hunts get further from most peoples' price range, expect the goat hunts to fill the vacuum and prices to follow.
If you really want to go, save up and don't dick around applying for every tag you can to the tune of $2500 or more a year of non-refundable licenses/points etc. Save $4-500/month (twice what you'd "throw away")... and go in the next 4-5 years on a dall sheep hunt, or save a bit more and go on a bighorn hunt in Canada. Sheep hunts are going up in price about 5-10% or more a year. In 4-5 years you'll be lucky to find a cut rate dall sheep hunt for $20k, that's about the average rate now. There is no guarantee that you will ever draw a tag, much less that there will be any sheep left alive to hunt. As a NR, you could apply for every state offering sheep tags, and only have a chance at 1 of about 200 a year total, regardless of points scheme. Half of those will come from WY and NV.
As the sheep hunts get further from most peoples' price range, expect the goat hunts to fill the vacuum and prices to follow.
WapitiBob
Well-known member
I would look at the random odds in the states you're interested in and decide if those odds are worth the non refundable cost.
CampRipleyLF
Active member
Colorado guys can correct me if I'm wrong.... but for moose I believe you need 3 preference points then anything after that is just chance..... aka no preference pointed needed, so if youre lucky you can draw one in 4 years. At least that's my understanding of it, or at least what it was last year. Bought my first moose preference point in CO for the first time last year, I'm 31
brownbear932008
Well-known member
Lots of good info here from some guys that's been in the game many years. I'm close to 15 deep in some states.
You could probably knock two of the three out guided within about 12 years if you save the money spent on license fees and point fees with a very low odds of drawing. In the mean time you could buy some sheep lotto chances and hope to hit the jackpot.
You could probably knock two of the three out guided within about 12 years if you save the money spent on license fees and point fees with a very low odds of drawing. In the mean time you could buy some sheep lotto chances and hope to hit the jackpot.
Zim
Well-known member
There is no answer to this, as everything is relative. Also, the way states are jacking up fees to accommodate the wealthy, only the Sky is the limit.
I loved applying for stuff in the 90’s. All paper, but there were far fewer applicants, draw stats were so simple, and I often drew great tags with no or few points. Today the lotteries are just one armed bandits. I’m trying to exit as many systems as I can, and just concentrate of a few for elk, deer & lope.
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dirtclod Az.
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My brother drew 2 Antelope tags /back to back in Az.with zero pts!
Go for it...
Go for it...
Zim
Well-known member
My brother drew 2 Antelope tags /back to back in Az.with zero pts!
Go for it...
All of us know someone who drew something. Hell my mailman won $7 million in the IL lottery. But far more common is my situation for AZ antelope where I’ve got 22 points and just when I’d been able to draw, they change the system and I’m SOL until 2030. That’s the reality. Especially for guys on the ground floor, I’d highly recommend investing wisely, not impulsively.
ImBillT
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Points or no points, there were never enough of those tags for all of us to get one before we die. Point systems make it ever so slightly more likely that you will draw one before you die, but almost certain to be older and more broken down when it finally happens. If you have the money, do it, but only in states with a random component, and states with no points at all. The more drawings you’re in, the better your odds, but as mentioned, if you’re in ever single one you’re looking at about .5%. That means you could live two life times and never draw a tag.
MThuntr
Well-known member
10 years ago a friend drew a Montana goat tag with 2 points...
ImBillT
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Exactly! You can’t draw if you’re not in. In states that are totally or most based on preference points, then yeah, you’re too late, but in states with bonus points or no points, then you have chance. If it’s something You want to do, then do it. If you can’t afford to go for all of them, then get points in your cheapest state or two and apply in a state or two that doesn’t use points.
Only apply to draws with some random tags. I fall prey and am guilty of this mistake as well. The random draw odds vs vs the cost to enter enter the draw is absolutely abysmal. In many cases we’d be super lucky to see draw odds reach 1%. Most are substantially worse.
belly-deep
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If draw stats follow the general demographic trend of the hunting population, draw odds are gonna get real good in 15-20 years.
This is effectively the strategy I undertook when I started applying for sheep across the west 5-6 years ago. I assumed in my late 30's that I would never draw a tag based on points, it would be part of some kind of random/bonus draw.
It's a personal decision on whether the 'lottery ticket' cost is worth it to you. In my case, I dropped out of WY when they jacked the point fee last year since the random odds didn't support (for me personally) the cost any more. I would have never drawn in the bonus round so the points were worthless. i continue to apply for Moose there (A = there's some chance I may draw many years from now in the point round which was untrue for Sheep, B = I have family friends in WY moose country).
I continue to apply in CO, NM, AZ, MT and ID and buy raffle tickets in various states because there is a random chance in all of them.
This is correct in practice. After 3 years of applying, your Colorado M/S/G applications are then 'in the hat' (you have a chance) - every unsuccessful year after that, you receive a 'Weighted Point' (except Desert Sheep which have no point system. But - you can't apply for a Rocky and a Desert in the same year).
The number of Weighted Points is used as a divisor to your random number (the actual formula is more complicated, iirc, but that is the effective method), so they aren't true 'Bonus' points (i.e. you don't get an 'extra ball in the hat') - so the increase in odds is relatively small.
There is an anomaly arising from the R/NR allocation split where NR's can (and do) draw Cow moose tags with less than 3 points. I think this anomaly bled into a ewe tag as well the other year.
Having 2 points 10 years ago is DRAMATICALLY different than having 2 points now. Also, if your friend was a MT resident, that is dramatically different as well.
It mostly comes down to what you can afford. I think buying raffle tickets in most states is as good or better money spent than buying points if you're just starting out.
MThuntr
Well-known member
I was just pointing out that it can be done...It's a positive way of looking at things where the odds are against us all
If you let the naysayers talk you out of applying you absolutely NEVER draw a tag.
This is what I was thinking! Roulette pays 35 to 1! $1,000 turns into $35,000. That would probably buy a sheep hunt, or a mtn goat and moose hunt at a time of your choosing. The roulette odds of 2.6% are about 10 times better than any sheep hunt, especially as a NR.
It's never too late to start the points game. Luck happens, just not to me.
