Elk Success Rates

[shannerdrake]

I just finished reading the Wyoming 2017 Elk Harvest Report and noted that they had an overall hunter success rate of 43.4% (NR over 50%!) Further they have averaged around 35% since 2008. I also read a few articles on backcountrychronicles.com about success rate and they show an average 44% success rate for Wyoming between 2012-2016. Montana and Colorado both are around 20% depending on where you look and what year.

Questions are relatively simple - are the states tracking success rates in an apples to apples manner so that we can accurately compare them or is there some creative statistical work at play? In short, are you really twice as likely to kill an elk in Wyoming than any other western state? Why such a discrepancy?

 

[ccc23454]

You may be twice as likely to a elk in Wyoming yes but harvest data is fictional. Wy doesn't track all hunters only those who stop at check points and those who are surveyed after season. So likely harvest data is statically inaccurate. Some states let's say Idaho I have to check all game so there numbers are as accurate as possible. Some zones in we are more/less accurate also as there may be single entry point and G&F sit it regularly while other zones have 50 ways in/out so they sit common highways and try to gather info but it's still limited in accuracy.

 

[RojoGrande]

As I understand it, Colorado is just an estimate based on survey data. I've gotten emails and in the old days a mail in survey. As such the success % is only to a degree of probability, not 100% accurate. Accuracy depends on the number of responses and how honest people are on their responses. I feel hunters are a pretty honest lot (except when telling stories of the the one that got away) and there's no real benefit to one individual to not be truthful on an anonymous survey.

I've never seen any stipulation in the success or harvest data that shows what that degree of probability is, could be 80% to 95% probability which means +/- several % points one way or the other. I guess over time it all averages out. You'd really need to look at data over a 5 to 10 year window to get a truer picture.

Rojo

 

[HighDesertSage]

In short, are you really twice as likely to kill an elk in Wyoming than any other western state?

WY does a great job on crowd control. I bet it's even better than that when comparing WY's gen tag to other state's OTC opportunities. In CO's OTC units it can become quite comical how many people are buzzing about on their ATV's in hunter orange.

 

[fap1800]

I don't know about twice as likely, but as easterner, if I had to do it all over again, I wouldn't have started with CO.

 

[cheeser]

in today's world there is no reason a person cant take a photo of their animal in the spot it was killed, give it a GPS coordinates, license number and register their animals via their phone directly to each state agency. my home state of Michigan does not require registration of deer , it does the random mailing crap. They have no idea what was ACTUALLY taken, terrible system. I could be so much better.

yes, I know you dont always have reception in every location but the information can be sent later when you do.

 

[mdhunter]

I would say your final odds of harvest success will be 100% or 0.....

 

[Deleted member 28227]

in today's world there is no reason a person cant take a photo of their animal in the spot it was killed, give it a GPS coordinates, license number and register their animals via their phone directly to each state agency. my home state of Michigan does not require registration of deer , it does the random mailing crap. They have no idea what was ACTUALLY taken, terrible system. I could be so much better.

yes, I know you dont always have reception in every location but the information can be sent later when you do.

I just got my AK permit, you fill out two halves attached one to the animal, drop the other prepaid half in the mail. Seems like a great system to me, and to your point you could easily make a phone app that allows you to do submit your data. You could say that it's not mandatory, but that you get an extra bonus point/pref point in the draw for that species if you do.

 

[jtm307]

The harvest rates aren't reliable, but not for the reasons mentioned here. There are sufficient responses for accurate harvest rates. You don't need to measure the height of every human to get an accurate estimate of the average height. What you need is a random sample of sufficient size. The sample size is more than enough. What the final numbers don't account for is hunter skill and effort. There is a great diversity of hunters out there. If you are an experienced hunter and willing to go the extra mile, the odds of you filling your tag are much greater than the harvest rate for your unit. If you're the kind of hunter who just drives around for a few hours hoping an elk poops out in front of the truck (there are a lot of these types of hunters), you're odds are in the single digits.

 

[madtom]

The harvest rates aren't reliable, but not for the reasons mentioned here. There are sufficient responses for accurate harvest rates. You don't need to measure the height of every human to get an accurate estimate of the average height. What you need is a random sample of sufficient size. The sample size is more than enough. What the final numbers don't account for is hunter skill and effort. There is a great diversity of hunters out there. If you are an experienced hunter and willing to go the extra mile, the odds of you filling your tag are much greater than the harvest rate for your unit. If you're the kind of hunter who just drives around for a few hours hoping an elk poops out in front of the truck (there are a lot of these types of hunters), you're odds are in the single digits.

Yep. And if you’re a skilled hunter who notched your tag on a nice animal, you’re probably more likely to respond to the harvest survey than someone who either didn’t try hard or did try but didn’t fill their tag.

 

[jtm307]

Yep. And if you’re a skilled hunter who notched your tag on a nice animal, you’re probably more likely to respond to the harvest survey than someone who either didn’t try hard or did try but didn’t fill their tag.

This is true. One could argue the sample isn't random.

 

[Gr8bawana]

I'll give you the results of the three elk hunters on my family.
I personally have had 1 bull tag and 4 cow tags, all but 1 cow tag were filled and the bull was a 340+.
My son has had 1 bull tag and it was filled with a 5x7.
My brother had 1 bull tag in NV that that he was unable to fill and 5 either sex tags in AZ of which only one was filled with a cow.
The one archery bull tag he had in AZ went unfilled only because he wanted to take a trophy, we had a 5 point within 10 yards which he could have taken.
As someone mentioned before I think it has to do with the fact that we are willing to work harder than most.
That gives us an overall 83% success rate, which I think is pretty darned good 100% DIY public land hunting.

 

[cheeser]

https://gowild.wi.gov/wildlife/harvest/

wisconsin is already doing it, just need to fine tune it

 

[cheeser]

i was not talking about a phone app, but that would work also.

i am saying very very few people dont have a smart phone capable of gps/photo and internet, thus online registration would be very doable. the agency would have the sex, size,location, day of season shot.

 

[shannerdrake]

Thank you everyone for your input. This is great discussion.

Let me ask this way - all things being equal (the hunter’s effort, the season, the weapon, the hunting style, etc.), do you believe that ON AVERAGE a hunter is significantly more likely to harvest an elk in Wyoming than the other common western elk states?

 

[madtom]

Thank you everyone for your input. This is great discussion.

Let me ask this way - all things being equal (the hunter’s effort, the season, the weapon, the hunting style, etc.), do you believe that ON AVERAGE a hunter is significantly more likely to harvest an elk in Wyoming than the other common western elk states?

That's really hard to say without knowing how each state surveys hunters, and whether reporting is voluntary or required.

Worth remembering too that guided/outfitted hunters on private land can greatly skew harvest success. WY has elk areas with 90% success that barely have 100 acres of accessible public land... So a public land hunter should take some harvest stats with a grain of salt. They're only one piece of the puzzle.

 

[jtm307]

Thank you everyone for your input. This is great discussion.

Let me ask this way - all things being equal (the hunter’s effort, the season, the weapon, the hunting style, etc.), do you believe that ON AVERAGE a hunter is significantly more likely to harvest an elk in Wyoming than the other common western elk states?

I do believe so. There are more elk per hunter afield in WY than in any other state.

 

[oleefish2]

I have had 100% rate for the last 26 years with a mix of bulls and more cows than bulls. I have only sent in the survey maybe 5 times. Most the folks I know do not do the surveys either.

 

[PrairieHunter]

I would expect Colorado to be the worst statistically due to the disadvantages of being shorter seasons and OTC vs draw. Wyoming and Montana have a pretty big advantage as tags are good for much longer (which should theoretically increase odds especially among residents) and tags are drawn months or nearly a year in advance so more planning is involved which should also weed out casual hunters who don't plan ahead for draws(Which should also theoretically increase success as hunters who do more planning are likely to more successful). I also suspect that having a small resident population and more NR hunters probably helps increase odds in WY and MT compared to CO which has more residents hunting elk (who are statistically less successful than NR's due to guided hunts).

 

[Fremont15]

I actually believe the posted success rates are pretty conaervative. The true success rates would actually be higher in my opinion.