Corona virus Impact on draw odds

[Kiwi]

If you are a NR this is the time to apply for MSG in states that dedicated NR quotas, ie "shall issue x% of tags" rather than "up to x% of tags".

I’ve been trying to work out which states have shall issue x% tags? I think MT deer and elk? Any others?

Yesterday I changed my CO elk app from points to a very long shot tag. For me the risk is that I can’t get over to the US but if it’s possible I will make it happen.

 

[dan.kirkpatrick]

I think some of the states that sit on your moneys will have less n r apps,,,{i for 1 dropped n m this year as it is a no refund state if ya draw}as much is that hurts,this probly wouldve been the year for a unit 16 elk tag l o l

 

[Elk247]

The guys that still have a job might think the extra 1200 dollars they get might make the decision easier to apply.

 

[Bluffgruff]

Things are going to get much worse economically in the next 4-6 months.
This is not the mortgage crisis.
If you have money now, and no concern for losing your job, you'll apply, residents will likely stay in state more than previously. Non-resident tags are going to be unhunted in unprecedented numbers.

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[undercover]

My first ever western application submitted in January and had high hopes and a level of excitement I haven’t felt in a while. Now I am beginning to have additional feelings of uncertainty. My employer says I’m essential but I think Michigan’s Executive Order will shut us down the end of the month. I can go a couple years without any income and my wife and I will be ok, but that is being frugal. I hope everyone here stays clear of this virus, it’s a nasty one as a couple people I know are in serious condition and they are more healthy than most.

 

[thusby]

Turkey hunting everywhere is gonna boom. I have been out of the game for 3 years but jumping in again because their ain't a whole hell of a lot to do.

 

[Trial153]

we need special max point pool for Corina positive appliers

 

[Bluffgruff]

I believe that resident tags will go unhunted in unprecedented numbers also. I believe priorities will gradually change. There are a bunch of guys whose wives are looking crosswise at them right now saying …...you are going to what?

Honestly, I was trying not spread panic about what I know from being a frontline medical professional.

 

[thusby]

People’s tolerance for sheltering in place will last about two more weeks is my prediction.

 

[ShootsManyBullets]

The unemployment with this deal is worse than 2007 so a lot of people are not going hunting this year regardless of their residency.

 

[ShootsManyBullets]

People’s tolerance for sheltering in place will last about two more weeks is my prediction.

Trailheads, campgrounds, and NF are closed now in addition to boat ramps and state parks. Tolerance will end quickly. On the last 5 hikes we've done we've been within 6 feet of exactly zero people.

 

[LandPro]

People’s tolerance for sheltering in place will last about two more weeks is my prediction.

agree & then the numbers will go thru the roof!

 

[mdhunter]

If the only positive of this pandemic is me finally drawing a sheep tag...so be it

 

[Deleted member 40728]

Most guys I talk to seem to be applying like crazy and shooting for the moon on some applications in hopes of getting lucky. I know several people that have decided to apply for the first time ever this year. I got a few calls this week from guys asking for help on their apps so it’s obviously not scaring everyone off. I’m not really sure what to make of it. Part of me thinks there will be less applications overall and the other Part thinks it will be a increase because everyone thinks this will FINALLY be their year to pull that high point tag.

 

[Deleted member 16014]

Most guys I talk to seem to be applying like crazy and shooting for the moon on some applications in hopes of getting lucky. I know several people that have decided to apply for the first time ever this year. I got a few calls this week from guys asking for help on their apps so it’s obviously not scaring everyone off. I’m not really sure what to make of it. Part of me thinks there will be less applications overall and the other Part thinks it will be a increase because everyone thinks this will FINALLY be their year to pull that high point tag.

My hunch is you’re right on both...top end tags will end up with close to normal odds with some dropping out and some jumping at a chance.

It’s the mid/low tier tags and leftovers that I think will see a big drop in apps. It will be fascinating to see how it shakes out. There’s really no precedent so every guess is about as good as the next.

 

[backcountry_sassn]

My guess is nonresident will be slightly down. Residents will hunt in there states no matter what. I think the economy could impact harvest numbers. For in state, tags are the cheap part. How far and how long you hunt is where the money is spent. Plus I think a lot of people will use PTO right now so they have some money coming in. This will mean more weekend hunters.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I could definitely be wrong but my general prediction is that resident draw odds will improve noticeably in lower and mid tier units that lie far from population centers. I think the long shot units will remain be close to years past. I think people will be sticking closer to home for personal and financial reasons. Even if things end up being rosier by fall, I don't think many guys will be feeling that way about life before the end of app season. I expect second elk tags, and doe lope/deer tags will be much easier to draw than years past for residents and nonres alike.
Far out of my wheelhouse, but seeing these unemployment numbers and projections it just has to have a huge impact on NR app numbers across the board. Highly desirable states will see less impact, which is why I've argued WY G&F's best long term financial play is to maintain robust hunting opportunity for success on bucks and bulls.

Even my relatively well off friends in Jackson are thinking a lot more about family and savings accounts than spare time/money of any kind.

Recently the coal mine in the unit I primarily deer hunt has shut down. Everyone lost their jobs.

The year the mine closed draw odds got worse not better. All the cow tags, which used to be super easy to get were snapped up instantly and 2nd season tags got harder to draw.

A couple years out things have kinda gone back to before the mine closed, which I attribute to locals leaving the area to find new jobs.

 

[jmustard]

I am a ER nurse in CA. I am hoping that my moderate points will produce something for me this year. If not, I am still going... somewhere