CO 3rd or 4th Season?

[Jasher]

I'm saving my points for next year. Since they aren't dropping the number of tags and more people going to switch seasons there's going to be a big drop of points this year.

 

[Oak]

Just to make everyone triple guess, CPW could shift licenses from 3rd season to 2nd.

 

[Dsnow9]

Just to make everyone triple guess, CPW could shift licenses from 3rd season to 2nd.

What do you mean by that?

 

[Oak]

What do you mean by that?

All I mean is that if CPW is concerned about the later season dates and last year they set the quota for a particular unit at 300 antlered licenses in 2nd and 200 in 3rd (for example), they could shift licenses and set the quotas at 350 and 150 (for example) and not reduce the number of licenses issued.

Edit to say that I have no idea if this is being considered.

 

[Dsnow9]

All I mean is that if CPW is concerned about the later season dates and last year they set the quota for a particular unit at 300 antlered licenses in 2nd and 200 in 3rd (for example), they could shift licenses and set the quotas at 350 and 150 (for example) and not reduce the number of licenses issued.

Edit to say that I have no idea if this is being considered.

Oh ok, that makes sense. Thanks for the clarification

 

[ShootsManyBullets]

I'm a little concerned we'll be looking at a drought year and not the best year to burn 15 points

 

[Wheels2]

I'm considering holding onto my points until next year if what everyone is predicting is true that all the high point holders are going to dump this year. Might make my 10 points seem like 13 or 14 next year. They can't kill all the mature bucks with limited tags available.

 

[jabber]

I'm considering holding onto my points until next year if what everyone is predicting is true that all the high point holders are going to dump this year. Might make my 10 points seem like 13 or 14 next year. They can't kill all the mature bucks with limited tags available.

I'm applying this year and if I don't draw I'm applying next year and if I don't draw I'm applying the next year and so on... I have 15 points that are just burning a hole in my computer.

 

[BlakeA]

I'm considering holding onto my points until next year if what everyone is predicting is true that all the high point holders are going to dump this year. Might make my 10 points seem like 13 or 14 next year. They can't kill all the mature bucks with limited tags available.

Unfortunately there are almost 7k people (6,714 to be exact according to CPW) with 10-15 points. The units/hunts you are most likely hoping to get into do not issue enough NR tags to even make a dent in one year.

 

[Dsnow9]

I personally think it will be three years before things normalize and we figure out the new point scheme for the new hunt season dates in the different units.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

It’s hard to imagine the amount of points required will go up in all the seasons. In the premier units yes, but some tags will have to drop slightly.

Depends on the quotas.

You could have 2020

200 2nd, 50 3rd, 15 4th

2021

100 2nd, 15 3rd, 5 4th

Assuming the goal was to have the same number of bucks killed in both years, this would increase draw odds across the board.

 

[Rhino Hunter]

This type of activity in the past, in my mind, is the main reason for point creep.

Years ago CO used to give out a higher percentage of tags to NR, then they dropped it substantially. Then they started pulling tags out of the pool to be auctioned off, and then there's the landowner tags (not sure if that's a new one or not). These changes have all reduced the number of available tags for the NR to draw. Meanwhile the tag/license fees have skyrocketed!!! It's all a huge money grab.

When I started this rat-race it took 7 points for a NR to draw in GMU 201. Today I'm at 28 and still can't draw, and it'll probably take at least another 5 years before I have a legitimate chance to draw with a bunch of other NR's that have the same points as I do. Then it could be another 5 years, or more, before I actually do draw. By then I might be too old to hunt elk. So I will probably be forced to reconsider my GMU preference between now and then.

 

[mbrewer67]

That’s a great point and one I hadn’t really considered. But I think the answer is basically gonna be yes or almost. It might not be true 4th season points required to draw 3rd season tags but I still think year over year (2020 to 2021) there is gonna be a huge increase in points required to draw 3rd season tags considering the fact that 3rd season 2021 dates (Nov 13-19) are just about 4th season 2020 dates (Nov 18-22). For example, let's take a pair of units that can be hunted with the same tag in Western CO. that were 100% draw for 3rd season with 1 pt in 2020 and 20% draw with 1 pt in 2019 for NR. The same hunt code for 4th rifle was 25% drawn with 10pts in 2020 and 100% drawn with 13 pts in 2019 for NR. The points required to draw this tag for 3rd season in 2021 probably won't be 10 or 13 but I think it could be 7-9. What I think is gonna happen is that alot of guys who had been chasing 4th season tags but kept getting beat out by point creep or guys with mid range points, say 5-9 points, are gonna see the 3rd season 2021 dates and think they can basically get a 4th season hunt date-wise with less points than normally required for a 4th season tag. I'm basically predicting that I won't be able to draw the 3rd season tag I want in 2021 with my 3 points. But I'll probably still apply for it cause I'm not that bright.

This explanation makes a lot of sense to me, thanks for taking the time to provide this insight. I am planning on 3rd season.

 

[Oak]

They can't kill all the mature bucks with limited tags available.

Don't be so sure. I am virtually certain the Gunnison Basin will have an increase in licenses this year.

Years ago CO used to give out a higher percentage of tags to NR, then they dropped it substantially. Then they started pulling tags out of the pool to be auctioned off, and then there's the landowner tags (not sure if that's a new one or not).

This did not happen. Landowner vouchers did go from 15% to 20%.

 

[Thomas11]

Don't be so sure. I am virtually certain the Gunnison Basin will have an increase in licenses this year.


This did not happen. Landowner vouchers did go from 15% to 20%.

What makes u think there will be an increase in licenses?

 

[Oak]

What makes u think there will be an increase in licenses?

Because when I was talking recently to the guy who decides, he said, "we are about to have deer coming out of our wazoo." Fawn:doe 90:100, buck:doe 43:100, mild winter, etc, etc...

 

[Rhino Hunter]

This did not happen. Landowner vouchers did go from 15% to 20%.

I could be wrong on the auctioned tags. Where do the auction tags come from then?

Do you know what the current % NR tag allottment is vs. what it used to be? I used to know, but forgot over years. I think it's 85% Res and 15% NR now. I believe it used to be something like 60/40 or 70/30. IMHO that change alone effectively doubled the wait for NR.

 

[Fatrack]

with everyone going for the 3rd season dates, there are going to be some great opportunities left open for 2nd season hunts and 4th for that matter

 

[TOGIE]

I could be wrong on the auctioned tags. Where do the auction tags come from then?

Do you know what the current % NR tag allottment is vs. what it used to be? I used to know, but forgot over years. I think it's 85% Res and 15% NR now. I believe it used to be something like 60/40 or 70/30. IMHO that change alone effectively doubled the wait for NR.

oh no, we remain extremely generous

up to 35% for y'all currently, generally speaking. then you get kicked to 20% for 6+ pp units, which is not a lot of units.

https://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Commission/2020/November/Item.12ppt-Allocation_Presentation-final_mailing-Brian_Dreher-DNR.pdf

 

[Oak]

I could be wrong on the auctioned tags. Where do the auction tags come from then?

Do you know what the current % NR tag allottment is vs. what it used to be? I used to know, but forgot over years. I think it's 85% Res and 15% NR now. I believe it used to be something like 60/40 or 70/30. IMHO that change alone effectively doubled the wait for NR.

There are only two auction and two raffle licenses for deer and elk. They are statewide licenses and don't affect the quotas in any particular unit.

I have a ton of information on the history of allocation but don't have time to write it at the moment. Maybe tonight. You are correct that NR allocation has been reduced over the years (60/40 --> 65/35 --> 80/20 in some units). There probably wouldn't be as much heartburn as there is without the preference point scam scheme.