Bounce, Bounce, Splat.....

[JoseCuervo]

It looks like they must have started polling hunters, as Dubya's numbers are plummetting, and we all know hunters would be cuttin' their own necks to vote for Dubya....

) - Two national polls on Thursday showed the race between President Bush and Democrat John Kerry deadlocked as Bush's convention bounce faded, although the president has made headway in key swing states.

In polls certain to buoy the spirits of anxious Democrats, the Pew Research Center and Harris Interactive found equal levels of support for the White House contenders as Kerry rebounded from the withering attacks he faced at the Republican convention that ended on Sept. 2.

The new surveys followed two other polls in recent days, by Investor's Business Daily and a Democratic group, Democracy Corps, that found the race essentially even again, just as it was for months before the two parties held their nominating conventions.

"Some of the negative attacks against Kerry are wearing off and he has stayed in the game because people are discontent with Bush on Iraq and the economy," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press.

"Unfortunately for Kerry, he's been unable to tap into that unhappiness, especially on Iraq," Kohut said, noting Bush still beats Kerry 52-40 percent on who was favored to lead the war in Iraq. "It's a mixed picture for Kerry, but that's better than what he had a few days ago."

Several other recent polls have shown Bush, who bounced to a double-digit lead in two polls after the Republican convention, holding a four- to seven-point lead over Kerry.

A flurry of new state polls, meanwhile, showed Bush moving ahead in key states like Florida and Nevada and challenging Kerry in Democratic strongholds like New Jersey.

VOTERS UNSETTLED

"We went through a period for months where there was no air between these candidates in the polls ... and now it's the opposite," Kohut said. "I think it shows the voters are unsettled, their thoughts about Kerry are unsettled and they are going back and forth."

A new National Annenberg Election Survey earlier this week found Bush gaining ground as a leader and in the war on terror, but his approval ratings among undecided and "persuadable" voters dropped below levels from before the convention.

Kerry has sharpened his message and gone on the offensive against Bush this week on Iraq and the economy, challenging the president's credibility and his leadership on both issues.

 

[JoseCuervo]

New Poll Shows Bush, Kerry in Virtual Tie
By WILL LESTER, AP

WASHINGTON (Sept. 16) - The GOP convention gave President Bush a double-digit lead, but the race has settled into a virtual tie with voters still worried about the economy and Iraq, according to polling by the Pew Research Center.

The first of two national polls by Pew, done Sept. 8-10, reflected the president's post-convention bounce. Bush was ahead of Democrat John Kerry 52-40 among registered voters and by an even wider margin, 54-39, among likely voters, a narrower group.


"Bush's vulnerabilities on Iraq and the economy continue, and these have anchored the race."
-Andrew Kohut

By the second poll, done Sept. 11-14, the Bush lead had evaporated. In that poll, Bush and Kerry were knotted at 46 percent among registered voters. Among likely voters, Bush was at 47 percent and Kerry at 46 percent.

"There is a great deal of instability and uncertainty in the electorate," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. "This poll finds a lot of the positive impact Bush had in the convention remains. But Bush's vulnerabilities on Iraq and the economy continue, and these have anchored the race."

After the Republican convention and its well-orchestrated criticism of Kerry, Bush grabbed a lead ranging from 5 points to 11 points in various national polls. That lead appeared to be shrinking in some polls by late last week, and a Harris poll out Thursday showed the race even.

"This gives Kerry an opportunity to stay in the hunt," said Kohut. "Some of the negatives that Kerry accumulated during the Republican convention have worn away."

Kerry's unfavorable ratings increased after the GOP convention but dropped slightly between the two waves of the poll. Fewer voters in the second poll had an unfavorable view of the Democrat, said Kerry is too quick to change his mind, and believed the risk of terrorism would be higher if he were elected.

Bush continues to hold a commanding lead on who would do the best job of defending the country from terrorists by 58 percent to 31 percent. And he's seen by more as a strong leader.

But people are more likely to disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy and are evenly split on his handling of Iraq. Almost six in 10 said it's not clear what Bush will do about Iraq if he is re-elected.

Two-thirds thought Vice President Dick Cheney went too far when he suggested that if voters "make the wrong choice" on Election Day there is a danger "we'll get hit again" by terrorists.

Interest in the presidential debates is high with 61 percent saying it's very likely they will tune in to watch - compared with 43 percent who said that in September 2000. Three in 10 said the debates will matter in their voting decision.

By a 3-1 margin, voters said they think Bush is likely to win re-election in November.

The first poll of 970 registered voters was taken Sept. 8-10 and the second poll of 1,002 registered voters was taken Sept. 11-14. The margin of sampling error for both polls was 3.5 percentage points.

 

[TheTone]

And yet a time poll has him ahead by 11 points for the second week in a row. Who do we believe?

 

[JoseCuervo]

I would believe the latest, and the polls with the most consensus, given valid methods.

And actually these polls don't matter, it is just the polls in the Swing states that matter.

REmember, vote early, and vote often...

 

[cjcj]

Gunner Dubya is going to win, your almost ready to make me vote for him [to much left-wing propaganda] Dan Rather/Elkgunner etc.

 

[JoseCuervo]

Hell CJ,

I haven't even decided who I will vote for yet, you can just wait until I decide, and then I will tell you who to vote for....

 

[cjcj]

Don`t you mean i should do the opposite?

 

[cjcj]

Hey are you still over in Japan? if your are quit eating all that sushi, you are getting way too much mercury. Ok goodnight Gunner. got to go.

 

[feclnogn]

And yet a time poll has him ahead by 11 points for the second week in a row. Who do we believe?

I would look at Zogby and Rasmussen. Average the 2 together and that will give you a pretty close average. Look at the state polls and not the national polls. Gallup, Newsweek and Time are on crack especially Gallup. They will be releasing a poll tomorrow (Friday) that has bush up by 14. No way in hell that is accurate. If you like to follow polls you can also go to the two links provided below.


Electoral Vote Poll

Federal Review Poll

The electoral vote poll is updated everyday, federal review once a week. Federal Review is a compostive of most of the major polls, EV seems to hand pick polls to achieve a result.

 

[feclnogn]

In regards to gunners splat analysis, Bush was never ahead by the numbers Time and Newsweek reported after the convention. When they posted thier polling data they over sampled republicans by a wide margin to achieve the results they posted which was I believe 8 and 11 points.

 

[A-con]

U.S.A.Today has the Bush lead increasing

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-09-17-gallup-poll_x.htm?csp=24&RM_Exclude=Juno

 

[MarvB]

I've never put any stock in the reports from the various polling agencies- in fact I think they (especially East Coast exit polls and election day "early results" polls) due more to damage the voting process than to help it.

Unless your one of the sheeple, who gives a rip either way whose in the lead a month+ in advance.
Kind of like have the poll position in NASCAR- usually doesn't mean squat.....