Arizona unit 27 late rifle 11pts

[Oak]

 

[HalfAce]

It seems like if it’s going to be a wet year, it starts early and it just keeps coming. Not getting the feeling it’s going to turn around. Points only on elk for me.

 

[hank4elk]

I've seen little to no snow in the White Mtns & the Gila this year,so far. Bad.

 

[BAKPAKR]

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That is a pretty sombering image.

 

[FlatlanderAZ]

Late rifle is 7E is legit

Don’t

If you put a unit as your second choice, that you have the points to draw in the bonus point round, you automatically get it without ever being in the random draw for your 1st choice.

Toprut indicated 13% draw at 10 points. Meaning he would be on the brink of drawing in the bonus pass depending on point creep. But like I said, TopRut is weird so I might be reading it wrong.

 

[MTGomer]

Don’t

Toprut indicated 13% draw at 10 points. Meaning he would be on the brink of drawing in the bonus pass depending on point creep. But like I said, TopRut is weird so I might be reading it wrong.

This is what I’m seeing on TopRut. Do you have an account so you can see 2020 results?

He’ll draw 6a in the bonus pass.

I wouldn’t burn 11 points in 6a.

 

[FlatlanderAZ]

This is what I’m seeing on TopRut. Do you have an account so you can see 2020 results?

He’ll draw 6a in the bonus pass.

I wouldn’t burn 11 points in 6a.

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That’s exactly what I saw. The 13% @ 10 pts means that is the lowest point amount that received any of the bonus pass allocation. With 11 he would be in that same group for next year so he would have about a 13% chance at the 10 tag before they looked at his second choice.

The only late hunt in AZ I would spend 10 pts on is 23. But if he wants to hunt this year his choices are limited. He can take his chances on 27 for a random tag or look at other options. Other than the 5 I mentioned there probably isn’t a late hunt I would even bother driving to AZ for.

 

[streamer]

This is good info I am really going to have to do more research before applying. I may have to talk to my hunting partner and see if other options could be talked about. Such as bow. Only worry is % of success on bow is much less and I have a lot of years invested

 

[nontyp]

This is good info I am really going to have to do more research before applying. I may have to talk to my hunting partner and see if other options could be talked about. Such as bow. Only worry is % of success on bow is much less and I have a lot of years invested

Most of the archery tags actually take more points than late rifle. Unless you are talking about late archery. I definitely wouldn’t use 11 pts on late archery.

 

[WapitiBob]

That’s exactly what I saw. The 13% @ 10 pts means that is the lowest point amount that received any of the bonus pass allocation. With 11 he would be in that same group for next year so he would have about a 13% chance at the 10 tag before they looked at his second choice.

The only late hunt in AZ I would spend 10 pts on is 23. But if he wants to hunt this year his choices are limited. He can take his chances on 27 for a random tag or look at other options. Other than the 5 I mentioned there probably isn’t a late hunt I would even bother driving to AZ for.

I don't know where you guys are getting your info but zero nr drew in the bonus pass with 10 points. Zero drew with 11, and 3 out of 24 drew with 12. This is the same report shown on Toprut for non residents; 2020 late rifle in 27.

 

[nontyp]

At the current point creep rate, in all likelihood an applicant at 11 points will never catch the points unless we see a retraction in applications at some point.

 

[FlatlanderAZ]

I don't know where you guys are getting your info but zero nr drew in the bonus pass with 10 points. Zero drew with 11, and 3 out of 24 drew with 12. This is the same report shown on Toprut for non residents; 2020 late rifle in 27.

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You are right Bob. We were on a sidebar discussion about unit 10 as an alternative unit to 27.

 

[npaden]

You are right Bob. We were on a sidebar discussion about unit 10 as an alternative unit to 27.

And some are on a thirdbar discussion about unit 6a as a second choice. The question ends up if you put 6a as your second choice if you will draw it without ever getting a crack at the random draw for your first choice unit if you don't have enough points for your first choice.

 

[FlatlanderAZ]

And some are on a thirdbar discussion about unit 6a as a second choice. The question ends up if you put 6a as your second choice if you will draw it without ever getting a crack at the random draw for your first choice unit if you don't have enough points for your first choice.

Ok, this is going to require some typing to straighten out. Standby.

 

[FlatlanderAZ]

Scenario A

Choice #1 – Unit 27 Late Rifle 3% draw percentage, no bonus pass allocation based on 2020 results.

Choice #2 – Unit 10 Late Rifle 13% draw percentage, partial bonus pass allocation meaning there is a small chance he could draw in the bonus pass without his Unit 27 first choice even being considered in the random pass.

Scenario B

Choice #1 – Unit 27 Late Rifle 3% draw percentage, no bonus pass allocation based on 2020 results.

Choice #2 – Unit 6A Late Rifle 100% draw percentage in bonus pass. There is essentially 0% chance that unit 27 first choice would even be considered in the bonus pass.

Scenario C

Choice #1 – Unit 10 Late Rifle 13% draw percentage, partial bonus pass allocation meaning there is a small chance he could draw in the bonus pass.

Choice #2 – Unit 6A Late Rifle 100% draw percentage in bonus pass. There is a very small chance that unit 10 first choice would be a possibility in the bonus pass.

 

[npaden]

Scenario B is what MTGomer was warning him about. Essentially cashing in 11 points on unit 6A without ever even having a chance at Unit 27 in the random.

Might as well put 6A as your first choice if you are going to do that.

 

[WapitiBob]

His unit 27 choice will always be considered up to the point he draws a tag.
Under scenario B they will look at his 1st choice and try to fill. If it can't be filled they will go to his 2nd choice and try to fill. If they can fill it, he draws his 2nd choice. There is never a scenario where they look at a 2nd choice before a 1st choice.

Where people get confused is a scenario where the 2nd choice gets filled in the Bonus Pass and therefor the applicant is now out of the draw and their 1st choice won't get looked at in the random (1-2 pass) draw.

 

[MTGomer]

I think what FlatlanderAZ wrote is correct and that Bob Is saying the same thing in a much more convoluted way.

Describe it how you like, the bottom line is - If you have the points to draw your second choice in the bonus pass, but you do not have the points to draw your first choice in the bonus pass, you get your second choice.

You can say ‘they looked’ at your first choice if you want to and technically they did, and they saw that you’re not qualified to be in the bonus pass for that choice, therefore you never had a shot at it.

 

[WapitiBob]

Where it gets convoluted is magazines/podcasts/etc saying an app isn't "in" or "looked at" for the bonus pass. Every app with at least 1 point is in the bonus pass and every app in that pass gets both choices looked at until they've gone thru every app.

 

[MTGomer]

Where it gets convoluted is magazines/podcasts/etc saying an app isn't "in" or "looked at" for the bonus pass. Every app with at least 1 point is in the bonus pass and every app in that pass gets both choices looked at until they've gone thru every app.

You’re splitting hairs over semantics and making this thread confusing to people that are reading it, whom may not understand how the draw is ran.

I’m just curious, are you an engineer by any chance?