'22 NR MT Elk Combo Tag Odds 2pp

[Wind Gypsy]

Let's hear the predictions - odds in 2022 for a NR applying for the General Elk Combo with 2 PP?

 

[rmyoung1]

With every outfitted client applying with two, not as good.

 

[LopeHunter]

Does the outfitter loophole allow someone to leap into the 2 point pool for 2022 that was 0 points going into the 2021 draw? Looks like this is so. And, that adds another 4,000 (WAG) to the 2 point pool.

Did tags get cut for the elk combo? Does not appear so though the outfitter loophole effectively cuts odds for a tag.

If someone turns in the 2021 Elk Combo does that person get their points reinstated? I just read that they do not.

Does the new buyer of that combo lose their points? I just read that they do not.

Ah, just read something saying that 0 points gets 20% of the tags. That is a curve ball. That pool may have better odds that the 1 point pool. Maybe the 2 point pool though doubt that.

I am setting the over/under at 45% for 2 point applicants in 2022 for the elk combo. I am taking the over.

If you have 1 point, the over under is 5% and I am taking the under.

If 0 points then setting over/under at 8% and I take the over.

 

[Cheesehead]

2 PP = end of 2021 have 2 then buy one going into the draw = pretty solid.
Two total at the draw (1+1)…not so good?

 

[WIbiggame]

Does the outfitter loophole allow someone to leap into the 2 point pool for 2022 that was 0 points going into the 2021 draw? Looks like this is so. And, that adds another 4,000 (WAG) to the 2 point pool.

Did tags get cut for the elk combo? Does not appear so though the outfitter loophole effectively cuts odds for a tag.

If someone turns in the 2021 Elk Combo does that person get their points reinstated? I just read that they do not.

Does the new buyer of that combo lose their points? I just read that they do not.

Ah, just read something saying that 0 points gets 20% of the tags. That is a curve ball. That pool may have better odds that the 1 point pool. Maybe the 2 point pool though doubt that.

I am setting the over/under at 45% for 2 point applicants in 2022 for the elk combo. I am taking the over.

If you have 1 point, the over under is 5% and I am taking the under.

If 0 points then setting over/under at 8% and I take the over.

I will take the under on your 2pp and put the number around 75-80% success. 1 point I am taking under and feel confident saying odds will be 0%. 0 pts I will take the over and put it qround 45%.

 

[Wind Gypsy]

I’ll elaborate on specifically why I’m curious how this plays out.. A while back I booked with an outfitter for a private land archery hunt in a unit that was previously in the 900 bundle thinking it might be my best shot at a truly big bull in my lifetime. I see the reality of the glory tags becoming less likely for someone like me who’s only been playing the point game for 8 years.

I hate the idea of turning in a general tag if I fail to draw the permit so I’m considering just buying one PP and going in with 2 vs using the outfitter 2 point option.

 

[Riplip]

"Ah, just read something saying that 0 points gets 20% of the tags. That is a curve ball. That pool may have better odds that the 1 point pool. Maybe the 2 point pool though doubt that."

They actually set aside 25% of the tags for 0 point holders, and most likely will have better odds than the 1 point holders.

 

[Shangobango]

My prediction is that 2 points will be about 70 percent and the oufitters will whine about their clients needing to be able to buy 3PP a year. Wash, rinse, and repeat when 3 becomes less than 100% draw.

 

[WIbiggame]

They actually set aside 25% of the tags for 0 point holders, and most likely will have better odds than the 1 point holders

1pp will be 0% draw odds

 

[Cheesehead]

Does the outfitter loophole allow someone to leap into the 2 point pool for 2022 that was 0 points going into the 2021 draw? Looks like this is so. And, that adds another 4,000 (WAG) to the 2 point pool.

Did tags get cut for the elk combo? Does not appear so though the outfitter loophole effectively cuts odds for a tag.

If someone turns in the 2021 Elk Combo does that person get their points reinstated? I just read that they do not.

Does the new buyer of that combo lose their points? I just read that they do not.

Ah, just read something saying that 0 points gets 20% of the tags. That is a curve ball. That pool may have better odds that the 1 point pool. Maybe the 2 point pool though doubt that.

I am setting the over/under at 45% for 2 point applicants in 2022 for the elk combo. I am taking the over.

If you have 1 point, the over under is 5% and I am taking the under.

If 0 points then setting over/under at 8% and I take the over.

Yeah, I think the 2 points DIY is the big wild card (and darn it, where I will be)…I think you’ll see a big uptick because of the new outfitter pool + the expiration … eg, lots of folks with 2 points going into the draw will probably avoid buying a third at $100 and risk it + most with 1 going into the draw will buy at the draw so be at 2…so I am now thinking the two point pool will be absolutely flooded.

So I’d go from 45 to 35% but that’s a wild ass guess and I haven’t taken time to really look at any numbers (does MT publish point holders at different point levels?)

 

[8andcounting]

Yeah, I think the 2 points DIY is the big wild card (and darn it, where I will be)…I think you’ll see a big uptick because of the new outfitter pool + the expiration … eg, lots of folks with 2 points going into the draw will probably avoid buying a third at $100 and risk it + most with 1 going into the draw will buy at the draw so be at 2…so I am now thinking the two point pool will be absolutely flooded.

So I’d go from 45 to 35% but that’s a wild ass guess and I haven’t taken time to really look at any numbers (does MT publish point holders at different point levels?)

35% with 2 pp ?
No……. It’ll be close to 100%

 

[Deleted member 40728]

I am always befuddled by the Montana point/application questions as to why people apply for there. The only things I have read on HT is how horrible the hunting is anymore and that there’s not a living creature, other than cattle, on public land.

I must be missing something.

 

[8andcounting]

I am always befuddled by the Montana point/application questions as to why people apply for there. The only things I have read on HT is how horrible the hunting is anymore and that there’s not a living creature, other than cattle, on public land.

I must be missing something.

Opportunity

 

[GCox]

I have found that going into the 2022 combo draw there are 1,736 people with 1 point, 13,185 with two, and 1 with three points. So in my opinion, this years draw is going to be a shit show.

 

[brownbear932008]

I have found that going into the 2022 combo draw there are 1,736 people with 1 point, 13,185 with two, and 1 with three points. So in my opinion, this years draw is going to be a shit show.

Agreed which is why myself and two friends are not applying for the first time in over a decade. We may be done there unless things get better at some point.

 

[ccc23454]

My guess: Will be a coin flip with 2 points, next year it will take 3... Good news they will change system again when 3 stops being 100%, outfitters need their welfare.

 

[8andcounting]

I have found that going into the 2022 combo draw there are 1,736 people with 1 point, 13,185 with two, and 1 with three points. So in my opinion, this years draw is going to be a shit show.

How could you possibly know that ? 10,000 people could apply next week all could buy a point and have 1 . U don’t think there was some guys who didn’t apply last year that will have 2 this year . There’s no way for you to accurately say this

 

[BlakeA]

With the current state of things, $1400 when checking out for your BGC app, $5.00 gas, an interesting economy, and the confusion and disaster of this FWP application process, we might be surprised at the number of people actually applying this year.

 

[8andcounting]

With the current state of things, $1400 when checking out for your BGC app, $5.00 gas, an interesting economy, and the confusion and disaster of this FWP application process, we might be surprised at the number of people actually applying this year.

Yea I was gonna say the same . Also it might be a good year to be on the alternates list if you want to go that route If turned down in draw

 

[Dakota79]

How exactly does the new outfitter PP and BP work and how much will that mess up trying to predict your odds?