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  1. ImBillT

    Points systems - when is it fraud

    Forced to buy the point, or don’t apply. No one forced anyone to apply, but in order to apply, they force you to pay for the point. You misunderstood.
  2. ImBillT

    CO Estimated Harvest Stats are up

    The required sample size to reach a certain level of precision. Obviously smaller data sets require lower sample sizes, but they actually require a higher percentage of the data to be sampled. I don’t remember any of that from my stats class, but I think that from what CPW has published it is...
  3. ImBillT

    CO Estimated Harvest Stats are up

    Sooo. I actually just clicked the elk harvest report. The excerpt you quoted conflicts substantially with what is in the report. On the first page of the report that isn’t an index or a map, it says that CPW surveyed the holders of 117,531 out of about 178,745 licenses sold. That’s a pretty...
  4. ImBillT

    NW CO to SE NM Barbary Sheep

    I’ve been told, by a guy that would know, that ewe’s and very young rams, are great eating, but that any ram remotely close to half decent would taste good, but be tougher than a boot. I said “what about burger?” And he said “if you like burgers that are hard to chew” I want to eat one some day...
  5. ImBillT

    NM Elk Draw

    I sent them my money, but I sort of wonder why. I can’t imagine a 10pt unit in AZ, CO, or WY not being 100X better than a 10% odds hunt in NM. When I started applying in NM some of today’s 10% draw odds elk hunts had 50%-100% draw odds, and 30% odds deer hunts were 100%. If I didn’t need...
  6. ImBillT

    CO Estimated Harvest Stats are up

    It’s sad that they need more than one data analyst for this. NM gets 85% of EVERYONE. CPW gets 80% OF THOSE SURVEYED. I’m not sure what percentage of hunters CPW surveys, but it’s not 100%, and 80% of whatever percentage they survey should not be compared to 85% of everyone. Obviously one of...
  7. ImBillT

    CO Estimated Harvest Stats are up

    It’s likely not wildly inaccurate, for most hunts, regardless of how exactly CPW is doing it, but depending on what exactly they’re doing, there may be some simple changes that would greatly increase their statistical power without actually making any big chances to their process or costing them...
  8. ImBillT

    CO Estimated Harvest Stats are up

    But is the number of hunters surveyed in each unit random? Is it a fixed percentage? Do low tag units get a higher percentage?
  9. ImBillT

    CO Estimated Harvest Stats are up

    For the purposes of determining harvest stats , 25% seems almost excessive for some of the units with abundant tags. This thread doesn’t represent survey percentage by unit. If they survey 10% in high tag units, and 50% in low tag units, I bet their numbers are quite accurate. How do they...
  10. ImBillT

    CO Estimated Harvest Stats are up

    Hunt codes with fewer tags would definitely need a higher percentage of hunters to be surveyed to be accurate. Does CPW publish how they decide who/how many to survey? It would be cool if CPW surveyed most or all hunters in mow tag units.
  11. ImBillT

    CO Estimated Harvest Stats are up

    Probably slightly more accurate, perhaps substantially so for hunt codes with very few tags, but for the most part, I doubt that it’s far enough off to be meaningful. That said, it seems like it could be automated quite cheaply. I wonder if they feel like hunters are less likely to lie if...
  12. ImBillT

    2023 New Mexico Draw Results

    It’s been exactly seven days prior to the published result date most years for quite some time. IIRC it has been fourteen days prior, and has been on the published date, but usually it’s seven days prior.
  13. ImBillT

    2023 New Mexico Draw Results

    That would be awesome. It would play heavily into my CO application.
  14. ImBillT

    CO Estimated Harvest Stats are up

    It seems like they survey a pretty high percentage of hunters. I bet their numbers are more accurate than most people here seem to think.
  15. ImBillT

    Colorado Draw Changes

    I’ve been hunting a unit that NR’s can draw with zero points every single year, and it still goes to the secondary draw. I guess residents needed even more tags that they don’t even want in the first place. Honestly this didn’t need to be accross the board. They just needed to add units to the...
  16. ImBillT

    Tell me about your obscure cartridge

    6.5x257AI on a long action with a long throat. 1-2gr H20 less capacity than a 6.5-284Norma. In a 30” barrel I’m getting 3300+ fps with 130’s, 3150-3200fps with 140’s and 2975fps with 156’s. All with RL-23, none loaded up to pressure signs. Might be able to wring a little more out of it with N560...
  17. ImBillT

    Berger Bullets

    Wow!! Honestly that might put me off of Bergers if I was getting that all the time! I got a small exit on the white tail doe and no exit on the hog IIRC with a 190 VLD-H started off at 2975fps. Don’t remember the range on either. The doe was a little long, the hog was fairly close. The exit on...
  18. ImBillT

    Elk Caliber and Bullet Choice - 2024

    168 VLD in a 280AI is the plan. 190 VLD in a 30-06AI is the backup plan.
  19. ImBillT

    Berger Bullets

    That was the common complaint, and seems like the common scenario that resulted in complaints. Hot rod cartridges and high impact velocities. The Bergers seem to handle that better than the old Ballistic Tip did. I would bet that the same bullet from a 7-08 would have performed much better. I’m...
  20. ImBillT

    Berger Bullets

    Yeah, that’s definitely why I asked. I wanted to know if the animal died almost instantly after the bullet entered the rib cage and then fragmented wildly(what I want to happen) or if the animal was lost or the bullet tumbled or only made a pinhole like an FMJ. My first Berger kill had two...
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